- Moose - Dec 26 (Click Here)
- Mountain Goat - Dec 31 (Click Here)
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5 (Click Here)
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10 (Click Here)
- Bison - Jan 15 (Click Here)
- Pronghorn - Today
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30
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Value of a Point
Each point that you accumulate has a value in that it increases your odds of drawing a tag by a certain percentage. That percentage varies depending upon the species, the unit, and even varies from year to year. In the table shown here, you can see that the point value for pronghorn is the highest of any once-in-a-lifetime or limited entry for both residents and non-residents. Pronghorn tag permits does seem to fluctuate more so than the other species because pronghorn do appear to be slightly more susceptible to weather related population swings, gratefully pronghorn also appear to be able to recover quickly from the downswings. For residents, you can expect each bonus point that you have to increase your odds by almost 2%! That means that with 0 points your average odds are 1.904%, with 1 point your average odds are 3.808%... basically take the number of bonus points you have and add 1, then multiply by 2. So if I have 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*1.904 = 19.04%.
For non-residents the value of a point is 0.189% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.189... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.189 = 1.89%.
Applicant Pool Evaluation
Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for pronghorn using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The orange bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point, both sets of bars correspond to the y-axis on the left. The gray line indicates the number of random numbers received by applicants who applied for a hunt unit corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.
In the 2019 application there were more than 2000 new applicants for pronghorn, yet the pronghorn pool remains the smallest applicant pool by a wide margin. It will be interesting to see how the new 5 year waiting period for limited entry deer impacts this applicant pool. The applicant pool for pronghorn follows a smooth exponential curve. Notice that the ratio of actual applicants compared to those who just buy the point is extremely high for pronghorn... it seems that if somebody is applying in the pronghorn pool they are going to apply for a hunt rather than apply for a point. Looking at the number of random numbers issued you can see just how shallow the pronghorn pool is. The number of random numbers issued peaks at the 2 point pool and declines from there.
The non-resident pool for pronghorn was the most dramatically impacted by the change about 10 years ago that allowed non-residents to apply for all limited entry and once-in-a-lifetime species. The number of applicants increased dramatically and has remained much higher than before. I find this interesting because in my opinion Utah is not a destination state for pronghorn, so it seems that non-residents view pronghorn as a cheap add on to the application since they are already buying the hunting license and applying for either deer or elk. My guess would be if the non-resident applicant was forced like the resident applicant to choose between deer, elk, or pronghorn that the pronghorn pool would be significantly smaller than it currently is.
Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.
These two graphs couldn't look more different. The trend for residents is to apply for an actual hunt unit rather than purchase a point, however the overwhelming trend for the non-resident is to purchase a pronghorn point. For residents it is pretty consistent throughout with about 90% of the applicant pool applying for a hunt unit. Only the top point groups showed a higher percentage of point buyers than actual applicants. The non-resident applicant pool appears to go in the other direction where 40% of most point pools apply for an actual hunt unit. This further solidifies my theory that the non-resident applicant views the pronghorn point as a cheap add on, probably something that will never actually be used because the applicant is likely accumulating pronghorn points to be used following successful deer and elk applications during the waiting period.
Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:
Pronghorn for residents should be attainable within a decade for a rifle tag and less than 5 years for an archery or muzzleloader tag. For non-residents it will take just over a decade.
Tag Distribution
Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019... The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.
