- Moose - Dec 26 (Click Here)
- Mountain Goat - Dec 31 (Click Here)
- Desert Bighorn - Today
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10
- Bison - Jan 15
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30
Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!
Value of a Point
For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.002% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.002... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.002 = 0.020%.
Applicant Pool Evaluation
Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for desert bighorn sheep using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The orange bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point corresponding to the y-axis on the left. The gray line indicates the number of applicants who applied for a hunt unit corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.
In the 2019 application there were almost 950 new applicants for desert bighorn sheep. The applicant pool for desert bighorn appears to be growing rapidly with spikes in applicants in the 0, 1, and 2 point pools. The same goes for the number of applicants who just bought the point, the growth appears to match the trend seen in the applicant pool. The 13 point group appears to be the peak in regards to the largest amount of random numbers issued but there doesn't appear to be as steep a decline and there is a second spike in the 19 point pool which tells me that the desert bighorn bonus point pool is very top heavy with lots of applicants that have very high numbers of bonus points.
The non-resident pool is interesting... I see a trend and the growth appears to match the trend. If you look at the graph and ignore the bars in the 7 through 10 bonus point pools the number of applicants appears to fall along an exponential growth curve. The outliers in the 7 through 10 bonus point pools coincide with the change allowing non-residents to apply for all once-in-a-lifetime species.
Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.
In my analysis of moose and mountain goat I noted that there is a trend for the top point holders having a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit. The desert bighorn pool of applicants only partially follows this trend. Half of the residents with max points (24) apply for a specific hunt unit while half purchase the bonus point, in lower point pools the great majority of applicants apply for specific units rather than purchase points. The non-resident applicant pool appears does not appear to follow the same trend and the vast majority of applicants apply for specific units.
Once-in-a-lifetime applications are an interesting thing... the draw odds are often so long that applicants should apply for a specific unit regardless... especially non-residents.
Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:
Tag Distribution
Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019... The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.
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