Utah Big Game Odds: The single most helpful collection of information available on Utah draws.: Drawing Analysis: Once-in-a-Lifetime Moose

In preparation for the Utah Big Game application period opening Jan 30th this year I will be releasing a species by species analysis of drawing odds. I will start with moose and will proceed with the once-in-a-lifetime species and finish up with the limited entry species. Here is the schedule I will follow:
- Moose - Today
- Mountain Goat - Dec 31
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10
- Bison - Jan 15
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30

Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!

Value of a Point

My grandfather's 2004 Bull Moose

If you have followed this blog for any length of time you have read about my philosophy of "point values." Each point that you accumulate has a value in that it increases your odds of drawing a tag by a certain percentage. That percentage varies depending upon the species, the unit, and even varies from year to year. In the table below, you can see that the peak of the moose point value was back in 2008 and since then the amount that each point increases your odds has decreased pretty dramatically. For resident, you can expect each bonus point that you have to increase your odds by about 0.030%. That means that with 0 points your average odds are 0.030%, with 1 point your average odds are 0.060%... basically take the number of bonus points you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.030. So if I have 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.030 = 0.300%.
For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.005% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.005... so if I had 9 points my average ods would be (9+1)*0.005 = 0.050%.

Unfortunately, the Utah moose herd has been battling a number of challenges resulting in declining herd numbers. There appears to be a slight glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel though, moose numbers appear to have stabilized a bit and the Moose Management Plan currently allows biologists to take an aggressive approach to their management. After years of not offering antlerless moose permits, there have been a small handful of antlerless tags offered over the last couple years and that is viewed as a positive. Both resident and non-residents face astronomical odds at drawing a moose tag in Utah, like the other once-in-a-lifetime (OIAL) species one should not expect to draw a moose tag with just a few points. Inevitably there will always be the extremely lucky applicants with just a small handful of points, and those lucky few are often met with a mixture of congratulations and hostility from those who have applied for years and years. My grandfather finally drew a moose tag in 2004 with max points at the time after applying annually for more than 30 years.

One item to pay particular attention to in the moose application (and all OIAL applicants) is the number of tags offered. If there has historically only been one tag offered then it is highly likely that only one tag will be offered again this year. When only one tag is offered that tag is through random lottery drawing. This is especially of concern for resident applicants applying for CWMU hunts, the majority of these hunts only offer a single tag so the drawing is a random lottery. If you would like to take full advantage of your bonus points you should really look for units that offer two or more tags. Many applicants are beginning to view these CWMU options as viable alternate choices to the standard public land hunts where drawing a tag may be a lot sooner coming. Again, be aware that most CWMU units only offer a single bull moose permit so no bonus permits are issued and the drawing is performed as a weighted lottery. It is conceivable that an applicant could apply for his or her lifetime and never draw the permit regardless of the number of bonus points that he or she has.
Notice that each of the units in the second table are CWMU units. The drawing odds for these CWMU hunts have all decreased dramatically over the last couple years as many applicants within the moose applicant pool have grown tired of the long waits and the constantly decreasing tag numbers.
For non-residents, there is one unit that offers more than one tag and therefore issued a single guaranteed bonus point tag... Wasatch Mountains. The other units to offer a non-resident moose permits were Ogden, North Slope, Summit and Cache.

Applicant Pool Evaluation

Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for moose using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The red bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point corresponding to the y-axis on the left. The green line indicates from the applicants who applied for a hunt unit the number of random numbers issued corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.

For the Utah resident applicant pool I am noticing a couple things. First, looking at the graph for the actual applicants, I can see that there has been a higher number of applicants in each of the past 3 years than the trend would seem to indicate... especially last year. In the 2019 application there were almost 2500 new applicants for moose! The number of applicants who just bought a point doesn't show nearly as dramatic an increase, but it does appear to be greater than what a trend would indicate. The 17 point group appears to be the peak in regards to the largest amount of random numbers issued.

For the non-resident pool, the number of applicants has dramatically increased just like the resident pool, and you can see the spike in the 10 point pool from when the State began allowing non-resident applicants to apply for all once-in--lifetime species.

Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.

Of note to me in both of these images is that the top point holders have a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit. Once-in-a-lifetime applications are an interesting thing… the draw odds are often so long that applicants end up applying anyways. For residents, the percentage of point buyers hovers between 25 and 35 percent for most of the applicant pool. When about 60% of the 24 and 100% of the 25 point holders end up just purchasing a bonus point instead of actually applying for a hunt it makes it very difficult to feel like one could ever catch up to the point creep in the moose pool.
For non-residents the percentage of point buyers appears to be between 30% and 40% pretty much throughout the applicant pool. If I were a non-resident, knowing how minuscule my chances of drawing are, there is no way I would let a year slip by without actively applying for a permit. With only single digit tags to be distributed and more than 8100 active applicants and nearly 6800 point buyers… I’d rather be with the active applicants and at least have a chance at a tag because by buying points annually. I just don’t see how you’re “gaining on it” by buying points year after year so if it were me I'd select a unit and apply rather than buy points... I'll get the point anyway when I get an unsuccessful email.

Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:

Tag Distribution

Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019...
The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.