Utah Big Game Odds: The single most helpful collection of information available on Utah draws.: 2021 Drawing Analysis: Once in a Lifetime Mountain Goat

Last year prior to the application period opening up I took a close look at the information that we have available to do a species by species analysis. This year I will do something similar, however rather than interpret data myself I will preface the information presented with a series of questions to provoke your own thought and digestion of the data. Each of us has very different reasons for doing what we do and why we hunt, we are in varying stages of life and have differing goals and aspirations. In the past much of my interpretation of the data has been biased towards my own strategy and I'd like to get away from that this year. Hopefully this format accomplishes that. I have tried to keep the same formatting and "look" because that consistency breeds familiarity. Overall, I want you to look at the data and ask yourself probing questions about your reasons, goals, aspirations, and abilities and come up with your own interpretation of the data and use that as your basis for decision-making. GI Joe says that, "Knowing is half the battle..."

The data that I look at is published by the Utah DWR on their website and is public information. I will take a combined look at the resident and non-resident data for the once-in-a-lifetime species, but for the limited entry species I will look at and have separate posts for resident and non-resident information. Same as last year, I will start with moose and will proceed with the once-in-a-lifetime species and finish up with the limited entry species and I will do my best to follow the schedule below so that all my analyses are available before the application period opens on Jan 28th:

- Moose
- Mountain Goat - Today
- Desert Bighorn - Dec 26
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Dec 30
- Bison - Jan 3
- Non-resident Pronghorn - Jan 7

- Resident Pronghorn - Jan 11
- Non-resident Deer - Jan 15

- Resident Deer - Jan 19
- Non-resident Elk - Jan 23

- Resident Elk - Jan 27

Subscribe below to stay up to date and please enjoy as you research for your 2021 Utah Big Game application!

Value of a Point

For resident, you can expect each bonus point that you have to increase your odds by about 0.113%. That means that with 0 points your average odds are 0.113%, with 1 point your average odds are 0.226%... basically take the number of bonus points you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.113. So if I have 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.113 = 1.13%.
For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.009% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.009... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.009 = 0.090%.

The mountain goat management plan is aggressive and results in highly fluctuating tag numbers due to population management, transplant plans, etc. Both resident and non-residents face astronomical odds at drawing a mountain goat tag in Utah, but unlike bull moose and the two bighorn species there may be some hope that one of these tags could be drawn in a lifetime (at least maybe for residents... sorry non-residents).

One item to pay particular attention to in the mountain goat application (and all OIAL applicants) is the number of tags offered. If there has historically only been one tag offered then it is highly likely that only one tag will be offered again this year. When only one tag is offered that tag is through random lottery drawing. If you would like to take full advantage of your bonus points you should really look for units that offer two or more tags.

A second item to pay attention to in relation to the mountain goat application is the handful of nanny only options available which historically draw the bonus tags at much lower point levels. These opportunities are generally tied to the larger goat populations that can be used in re-population or population establishment, so the number of tags can be high one year and very low the next so there is some risk in selecting the nanny only options.

A third item to look for are archery only options.

Applicant Pool Evaluation

The best knowledge that you can have going into any application period is what the environment around you looks like and getting a feel for what the applicant pool has been doing based upon prior year data. All of the following charts were generated utilizing this raw data taken from the 2020 Bucks, Bulls, and Once-in-a-Lifetime Drawing Odds Report :

The images that follow are a series of charts presenting the raw data in a more visual format. Again, I will refrain from interjecting my own opinion and allow you to interpret the data shown on your own... we each approach hunting with their own strategy based upon different goals and aspirations so it would be unfair for me to attempt to influence or encourage or discourage anyone because I would be speaking based solely upon my own goals and aspirations. That being said, I would encourage you to ask yourself the following questions as you look at each chart:

- Is drawing a tag for this species a part of my long term, mid term, or short term strategy?

- Where am I on this chart... what point group am I in and what is happening in the groups around me?

- Is where I am at on these charts encouraging or discouraging?

- Are there any trends that are interesting? Do I know what is causing that trend?

- How can "Point Buyers" impact me in the short term and in the long term?

- How do the answers to the previous questions impact my strategy?

- Am I willing to stick to my strategy for this species or do I need to re-evaluate?

The first series of images shows the number of actual applicants (yellow bars), the number of point buyers (blue bars), and the number of random numbers issued (gray line) for each point level:

This second series of images shows the distribution of bonus tags (blue bars), random/lottery tags (orange bars), and the number of applicants (gray line) in 2020.