- Moose - Dec 26 (Click Here)
- Mountain Goat - Today
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10
- Bison - Jan 15
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30
Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!
Value of a Point
If you have followed this blog for any length of time you have read about my philosophy of "point values." Each point that you accumulate has a value in that it increases your odds of drawing a tag by a certain percentage. That percentage varies depending upon the species, the unit, and even varies from year to year. In the table shown here, you can see that the peak of the mountain goat point value was back in 2012 for residents. Unfortunately, the value of a point for non-residents has decreased annually. For resident, you can expect each bonus point that you have to increase your odds by about 0.123%. That means that with 0 points your average odds are 0.123%, with 1 point your average odds are 0.246%... basically take the number of bonus points you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.123. So if I have 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.123 = 1.23%.For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.010% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.010... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.010 = 0.100%.
Unfortunately, the mountain goat population is highly fluctuating right now and many of the core populations are being used to establish populations elsewhere in the state and therefore opportunity and the number of tags offered from year to year can fluctuate. Both resident and non-residents face astronomical odds at drawing a mountain goat tag in Utah, but unlike bull moose and the two bighorn species there may be some hope that one of these tags could be drawn in a lifetime.
One item to pay particular attention to in the mountain goat application (and all OIAL applicants) is the number of tags offered. If there has historically only been one tag offered then it is highly likely that only one tag will be offered again this year. When only one tag is offered that tag is through random lottery drawing. If you would like to take full advantage of your bonus points you should really look for units that offer two or more tags.
A second item to pay attention to in relation to the mountain goat application is that there may be a handful of nanny only options where the highest point holders have much lower point totals. These opportunities are generally tied to the larger goat populations that can be used in re-population or population establishment, so the number of tags can be high one year and very low the next so there is some risk in selecting the nanny only options.
Recently there have also been archery only options. I don't have a whole lot of information on these hunts since they have been around for only a short amount of time, but the bonus tags do appear to draw at a lower level than any weapon tags.
Applicant Pool Evaluation
Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for mountain goat using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The red bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point corresponding to the y-axis on the left. The green line indicates from the applicants who applied for a hunt unit the number of random numbers issued corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.
In the 2019 application there were almost 1000 new applicants for mountain goat, that number still pales in comparison to the 2500 new moose applicants! The applicant pool for mountain goat appears to be growing steadily, there appears to be a spike in applicants in the 2 point pool but last year and this year the growth in applicants in the 1 and 0 point pools appears to be right in line with trends. The same goes for the number of applicants who just bought the point, the growth appears to match the trend. The 12 point group appears to be the peak in regards to the largest amount of random numbers issued... remember that for moose the peak for random numbers was 17 so the applicant pool for mountain goat is significantly smaller and is far less top heavy in regards to the number of applicants with very high numbers of points.
For the non-resident pool, growth appears to mimic the resident pool, with the exception of the 10 point pool from when the State began allowing non-resident applicants to apply for all once-in--lifetime species. If you happen to find yourself above that huge bolus of applicants beginning in the 10 point pool you actually find yourself in a decent spot... if you are behind that 10 point spike and the larger number of applicants in the point pools below 10 I would say you are fighting what would ultimately be a losing battle.
Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.
Of note to me in both of these images is that the top point holders have a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit. Once-in-a-lifetime applications are an interesting thing... the draw odds are often so long that applicants end up applying anyways. For residents, the percentage of point buyers hovers between 25 and 30 percent for most of the applicant pool. When a majority of the highest point holders end up just purchasing a bonus point instead of actually applying for a hunt it makes it very difficult to feel like one could ever catch up to the point creep in the moose pool.
For non-residents the percentage of point buyers appears to be between 30% and 50% pretty much throughout the applicant pool. If I were a non-resident, knowing how minuscule my chances of drawing are, there is no way I would let a year slip by without actively applying for a permit. With only maybe 10 tags to be distributed and more than 7600 active applicants and nearly 5400 point buyers… I’d rather be with the active applicants and at least have a chance at a tag because by buying points annually. I just don’t see how you’re “gaining on it” by buying points year after year so if it were me I'd select a unit and apply rather than buy points... I'll get the point anyway when I get an unsuccessful email.
Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:
Tag Distribution
Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019... The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.
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