- Moose - Dec 26 (Click Here)
- Mountain Goat - Dec 31 (Click Here)
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5 (Click Here)
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10 (Click Here)
- Bison - Today
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30
Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!
Value of a Point
For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.032% per bonus point, but compare that to the value of the other Once-in-a-Lifetime bonus points and you are getting a ton of value with bison points. Remember, moose was 0.005% per bonus point, desert bighorn was 0.002%, rocky mountain bighorn was 0.003%, and mountain goat was the next highest value at 0.010%. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.032... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.032 = 0.320%.
Applicant Pool Evaluation
Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for bison using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The orange bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point, both sets of bars correspond to the y-axis on the left. The gray line indicates the number of random numbers received by applicants who applied for a hunt unit corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.
In the 2019 application there were more than 2200 new applicants for bison. This is a pretty significant number, only moose had more first time applicants and the other once-in-a-lifetime species each had less than 1000 first time applicants. The applicant pool for bison appears to be growing rapidly following an exponential curve. The number of applicants who just bought the point also follows the same smooth exponential curve. Looking at the number of random numbers issued is where the bison pool gets really interesting though. The number of random numbers issues is high and stays high from the 2 point group to the 20 point group. I'm trying to make heads and tails out of this... and I'm torn between saying that the bison bonus points pool is top heavy because there isn't the steep decline in random numbers until after the 20 point group or if all the point pools between 2 and 20 being roughly equal in the number of random numbers issued is an indication of parity among the bonus point pools. I'm still not exactly sure how to interpret this and if that interpretation could be adequately described in words... but suffice it to say that the random number line for bison looks dramatically different than the other once-in-a-lifetime species (the only one that looks even remotely similar is mountain goat).
The non-resident pool appears to match an exponential growth curve although the growth is slightly higher in the point pools below 10, which again corresponds to the year when non-residents were allowed to apply for all once-in-a-lifetime species. Again, my apologies to any applicant who finds themselves in that huge bolus of applicants from the 0 to 10 point pools, the likelihood of you ever being in the system long enough to have reasonable odds of drawing a tag is never.
Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.
The bison pool bucks the trend of the top point holders having a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit for residents. The percentage of applicants who purchase the point only is pretty consistent throughout with between 20 and 30% of the applicants per point pool applying for the point only. Only the top point group showed a higher percentage of point buyers than actual applicants. The non-resident applicant pool appears to go in the other direction where the highest point holders appear to be purchasing points rather than applying for a specific unit. In the top point pools, from 23 to 26, two applicants applied for a unit while nine purchased the point... undoubtedly this will have an impact on "point creep" for the non-resident bison pool.
Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:
Please take note here, similar to what I described in the previous mountain goat post... there are options available within the bison pool that have the possibility of saving you many years of applying before drawing a bison tag. If you are intent on getting a tag good for a bull then prepare for the long haul however if you are willing to apply for cow only opportunities you can save yourself many years of applications.
Tag Distribution
Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019... The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.
Show me one other once-in-a-lifetime species that issued a bonus tag with less than double digit points... hint... you can't.
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