May 18, 2018

The Scouting Season Begins...

With the Utah bucks and bulls results coming out over the last week or so my fall schedule is beginning to take shape. In my application I applied for my usual general muzzleloader deer tag and purchased bonus points for limited entry elk and once-in-a-lifetime bison. So last week I found that I was successful on all fronts... I would have a general muzzleloader deer tag and I was awarded the two bonus points that I had paid for in February. This was the first time that my email didn't have at least one "UNSUCCESSFUL" on it!!!

I was waiting to hear from my friend Cody, now a Utah non-resident, who had taken a flier on his application and at my urging had applied for the late limited entry muzzleloader deer hunt on the same unit we had hunted for many years on the regular general muzzleloader hunt. A day after receiving my own results, he sent me a text letting me know that he wouldn't make it for the usual September hunt... but he would be ready to hunt in November.

Cody's muzzleloader deer hunt dates will coincide with the general any bull muzzleloader hunt that I've done each the last several years. Each of those years on the elk hunt I have seen at least one very nice buck. So we're excited for the opportunity to hunt deer this close to the rut.

Cody and I are working up a scouting plan, most of it will rely on me because of his non-resident status, and I will be logging my scouting exploits here... hopefully you find following along enjoyable.

Jan 9, 2018

Point Creep Wrap Up - A Real Life Understanding


Finally, let's take a close look at how all of these variables come together and manifest themselves each year. At the right are the drawing odds for the resident limited entry elk Central Mountains, Manti early any weapon hunt (my favorite unit to pick on) for 2015. The first thing I like to identify is the lowest point group in which at least one applicant drew a bonus tag. In this example is it 14 bonus points, and 67 bonus tags were awarded to applicants with 14 or more bonus points. There were eight 14 point applicants who drew in the 14 point pool and the remaining 52 applicants were entered into the random drawing. The second thing I like to identify is how many applicants with 14 points also drew random tags, in this example that number is 2. That tells me that in total ten 14 point applicants drew a tag leaving 50 applicants who were unsuccessful and received their 15th bonus point.
So if the Utah big game drawing occurred in a vacuum, we would expect there to be 50 applicants with 15 points, 91 applicants with 14 points, 95 applicants with 13 points, 85 applicants with 13 points, and so forth for the Central Mountains, Manti early any weapon elk hunt for 2016.
But below, you will see the 2015 drawing results side-by-side with the 2016 drawing results. The first thing that you’ll notice is that even though all the applicants from 2015 with 15 points or more drew tags, there are a number of applicants (20 to be exact) who could not have applied for this unit in 2015 but did so in 2016. Additionally, after 2015 there were 50 unsuccessful applicants with 14 points who gained a 15th point, yet in 2016 we see 57 total applicants with 15 points. So not only did we gain 20 applicants above the bonus point level from last year, we also gained 7 additional applicants in the 15 bonus point pool. So where did these applicants come from? Where were they the year before?
The honest answer to that question is… we don’t know. We can’t determine exactly “where” these applicants came from, it’s impossible at this point to determine whether these applicants were Point Buyers who finally decided to cash in their point stash, Unit Jumpers who came over from higher tier units, or if they were Inactive Applicants who had not applied years prior and decided to apply in 2016. But suffice it to say that there were 27 applicants in 2016 who contributed to point creep in this unit in 2016.
There was a fourth variable though of tag allocation, and we can see in this example (green box) that the number of tags remained unchanged between 2015 and 2016 so tag allocation was not an impactful variable in 2016.



Now let's take a look at the 2016 data compared to the 2017 data below. Notice that tag allocation becomes an impactful variable because tags numbers were reduced from 134 in 2016 to 125 in 2017.
In 2016, there were 48 successful applicants in the 15 bonus point pool and 9 applicants who were unsuccessful and received their 16th bonus point. From the 2017 drawing report we can identify 40 applicants who did not apply for this unit in 2016… again whether they cashed in purchased points, jumped from another unit, or jumped back into the drawing after some time away we cannot tell… however, all four point creep variables were evident in the 2017 application cycle for the resident Central Mountains, Manti early any weapon elk hunt.

So what does this mean for the 2018 application cycle for this Manti hunt? In the 15 bonus point pool from 2017 there were 59 unsuccessful applicants who theoretically we would assume will apply again in 2018 with 16 bonus points. I would expect to see a good number of applicants with 17 points or more… I’d say somewhere between 25 and 40. I’m going to be optimistic and assume a stable number of tags being offered at 125. I’d assume that all applicants with 17 points or more will be successful, and that leaves enough tags for 1/3 to ½ of the 16 bonus point pool to draw the bonus tags. So the number of bonus points needed to draw a Central Mountains, Manti early rifle elk tag (resident) has crept up from 14 in 2015 to my assumption of 16 in 2018.

Jan 8, 2018

Point Creep Variable #4 - "Inactive Applicants"

The final variable that I would say has, or could have, considerable impact on point creep are what I call “Inactive Applicants.” The number of applicants who applied for a tag before, have accumulated a point or more, and did not apply last year is pretty eye opening.
The DWR issues a separate report, after the drawing results are released that shows the total number of individuals who hold 1 bonus point or more. This report is called the Preference Point Summary by Residency and Species… or something similar and can be found on the DWRs Big Game webpage.
The image at right shows the total number of Utah residents with bull elk bonus points from the 2016 Preference Point Summary by Residency and Species set up against the number of Active Applicants (Actual Applicants + Point Buyers) from 2017. What I’m trying to do here is to impress upon you the number of people who have applied previously for limited entry bull elk but for some reason do not apply again.
The 2016 report shows that 44,037 individuals had 1 elk bonus point entering the 2017 application cycle. So looking straight across, of those 44,037 potential applicants in the 1 bonus point pool only 7635 were active applicants again in 2017. A mere 17% of the total potential applicant pool applied a second time! This seems to be pretty consistent that less than 20% of all first time applicants apply a second time. Interestingly though as you proceed down the table the percentage increases and by the time you hit the top third of the bonus point pools the percentages of re-applicants is 90% or more with the top bonus point pools being nearly 100%.
I think there is a sense of investment here. The more points you accumulate the more dedicated you are to the activity of hunting and/or the more obligated you feel to continue applying.
Overall, the bottom row of the image indicates that a mere 38% of the total number of applicants from 2016 applied again in 2017.
You might be wondering how this applies to point creep so I’ll give you an example. In 2002 and 2003, I was a young single college student. I wasn’t particularly interested in hunting at that point in my life but my grandfather talked me into applying for a bull elk tag with him and my uncle. I did so, unsuccessfully both years. Then in 2009, on a whim I purchased a muzzleloader and began hunting again. I have applied since for a limited entry bull elk tag. So for 5 years, I was one of those “inactive” applicants.
Another example… my uncle has only sporadically applied for a bull elk tag. He currently has 9 points to his name but has only applied twice since 2005, both times because I convinced him to do so. If he were to decide to resume applying for bull elk in earnest he could jump in and take a lower to mid-tier muzzleloader tag or a good archery tag.
It only takes a grandson/granddaughter, son/daughter, niece/nephew, friend, neighbor, or co-worker to express interest and all of a sudden a dormant applicant awakens.

PREVIOUS: Point Creep Variable #3 - "The Unit Jumper"
NEXT: Point Creep - A Real Life Understanding

Jan 6, 2018

Point Creep Variable #3 - "The Unit Jumper"

The third variable that I would consider is what I call “The Unit Jumper.” There are a number of factors that contribute to the unit jumping phenomenon…
I read of considerable frustration as I visit various western hunting forums with the western point systems and I read of a growing number of hunters who are looking to burn their points sooner for lower tier tags rather than continue to build points and hold out for an upper echelon tag. As these applicants shift their focus from top tier to lower tier units they contribute to point creep.
For example, let’s say that I’ve been applying for the Beaver, West early any weapon hunt unsuccessfully for many years and in 2018 I’ll be entering the drawing with 18 points. Looking at my spreadsheet, based on the 2017 applicant pool with 18 points I would to need to apply for 25 to 30 more years before I know I’d be guaranteed a tag!!! (Unless of course I’m one of the lucky guys that draws a random tag.) I come to the realization that I’d rather burn my 18 points now, hunt sooner rather than later… I’m not getting any younger, my family situation is good this year, I will have sufficient vacation or leave time from work this year… I want to draw THIS YEAR. Turning back to my spreadsheet I see a unit that I’m very familiar with because I enjoy spending time there doing other outdoor activities outside of hunting season like hiking and fishing. I also see that it only took 15 points to draw a bonus tag there in 2018, my 18 points would definitely put me at the top of the heap. So in 2018 I decide instead to apply for the Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lake early any weapon tag. Bringing my 18 points over to the Fishlake unit from the Beaver unit does have on impact on the Fishlake applicants with fewer than 18 points.
Applicants can also “jump” units and have a similar effect on point creep by applying for the same unit but by selecting a different weapon type. Let’s assume that I’ve been applying for the Wasatch Mountains early any weapon hunt and I’ll enter the 2018 application with 11 points. From my spreadsheet, I would estimate that it would take 4 to 6 years for me to draw one of the guaranteed bonus tags… and like in the above example I’m done waiting. I really like the Wasatch unit though, I know the area well, I know I could scout it often due to its proximity to my home, and I’ve helped other guys with hunts there in the past so I’d like to still hunt the Wasatch unit. From my spreadsheet I see that with 11 points I should draw the 2018 muzzleloader tag… I’ve got a muzzleloader, I haven’t shot it in a while and it’d be fun to dig it out of the back of the safe, wipe the dust off, and put a new scope on it (since powered scopes are now legal). So I decide to switch from any weapon to muzzleloader with my application for 2018. Bringing my 11 points over from the early any weapon to the muzzleloader also has an impact on the muzzleloader applicants with fewer than 11 points.
Another reason guys unit jump is commonly referred to as “hot spotting.” Every year different magazines and publications put out lists of the top units across the west. As applicants read these publications they decide to jump from unit to unit based upon these recommendations. Application services like Cabela’s TAGS also contributes to this as they bombard specific units with applications on a yearly basis.

(All the examples I’ve listed here are purely hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate the point.)

It is a good thing though that we have the freedom and ability to change our selections on a year to year basis. Our priorities change, our situations change, and our expectations change and we have the opportunity to modify our selections on an annual basis.

PREVIOUS: Point Creep Variable #2 - "The Point Buyer"
NEXT: Point Creep Variable #4 - "The Absent Applicant"

Jan 5, 2018

Point Creep Variable #2 - "The Point Buyer"

NOTE: All the data presented below is for Utah resident limited entry bull elk applicants. The individual limited entry and once-in-a-lifetime species analysis pages will be updated to include all the resident and non-resident data prior to the Utah application period opening on January 25, 2018.

The second variable of point creep is who I call “The Point Buyer”… the applicant who instead of applying for a tag in a specific unit purchases a bonus point for the year. There are a number of reasons why an applicant may choose for a single year, or even multiple years, to simply purchase the bonus point rather then apply for a tag. I have done this before myself due to a known family commitment during the time of my desired hunt. I chose to purchase the point instead of risking the chance of actually drawing the tag and suffering the consequences (I am still convinced that had I actually applied that year I would have been blessed/cursed with the SUCCESSFUL email). I also do this on an annual basis with LE buck deer points for my father, we are hoping that in the not far off future to have a special deer hunt for him before he gets too old and due to work, church, and other responsibilities such a hunting trip is not currently practical. The reasons are numerous and often personal in relation to health, church, work, and/or family.

But these individuals are often overlooked in the overall scope of our research and preparation. In an honest moment… for many years my research leading up to the application period entailed only looking at the drawing results for the unit I was going to apply for from the previous year. Not once did I ever consider this group of individuals and the impact that they could have on my immediate success in drawing a tag.

The catalyst for this entire series was a podcast by a hunting “celebrity” who stated that he had the most bonus points for a specific LE species here in Utah. I was excited to hear his confidence looking towards the 2018 application, I do enjoy seeing my home state of Utah on his shows because I think he produces a quality on screen product. But then I decided to cross-reference the drawing results report with the bonus point purchase summary. I discovered that since he was unsuccessful in 2017 that he would appear to be the highest point holder going into the 2018 application cycle… but there were 6 individuals with the same number of bonus points who purchased their bonus point in 2017. That right there is a game changer!!! I hope that he’s smart enough to include the Bonus Point Purchase Summary in his research and realize that if any of those other 6 guys decides to apply this year for the same unit he does that his sure thing is no longer a sure thing! The inability to incorporate "The Point Buyer" into odds calculations is the great flaw in many of the odds calculators (including my own spreadsheets).

This table outlines the number of Utah resident Bonus Point Buyers, Actual Applicants, Total Active Applicants, and respective percentages of Bonus Point Buyers and Actual Applicants for the 2017 limited entry elk drawing. I realize that this is a lot of data and appears overwhelming, but take just a second to look over it carefully and digest it for just a few minutes.

Bonus Point Group Point Buyer Actual ApplicantTotal Active Applicant Pool% Point Buyer % Actual Applicant
0 191690671098317%83%
1 13786257763518%82%
2 11725253642518%82%
3 10374384542119%81%
4 9893432442122%78%
5 8092912372122%78%
6 6802477315722%78%
7 6192212283122%78%
8 5551844239923%77%
9 4971728222522%78%
10 4831663214623%77%
11 4101414182422%78%
12 4531267171926%74%
13 3961166156225%75%
14 3251037136224%76%
15 302894119625%75%
16 24567692127%73%
17 21060381326%74%
18 15846962725%75%
19 14039053026%74%
20 11429240628%72%
21 6218124326%74%
22 5311917231%69%
23 19244344%66%
24 61788%22%
TOTAL 13027 497626278921% 79%

If you only look at the drawing results report you are neglecting 1/5th (21%) of the total picture and the amount of the picture you are neglecting gets bigger and bigger the more points you have. Let's assume that I was one of the individuals who entered the 2017 application with 23 points but was unsuccessful and will be entering the 2018 application with 24 points. With just a quick glance of the drawing results report I can see that the one Actual Applicant with 24 points in 2017 was successful in drawing a tag. So logically it would make sense to think that all the bonus point holders ahead of me are gone and my 24 points in the 2018 drawing would place me at the very top of the drawing. Turning to the bonus point purchase summary I would see that there were 6 individuals who purchased their 25th bonus point in 2017. These 6 individuals can't be expected to purchase points forever and they will eventually apply for and draw a tag.

The most interesting part of this table is that the percentage of Point Buyers increases as your point accumulation increases… at the max point total there were 6 Point Buyers compared to only 1 Actual Applicant.

So how does this contribute to point creep? Any one of these Point Buyers can jump back in the Actual Applicant pool. If I’m applying for a high demand unit that offers just a few tags, even one of these Point Buyers deciding to become an Actual Applicant can have a dramatic impact if he/she had enough points to jump in and be right at the top for the unit we’re applying for.

PREVIOUS: Point Creep Variable #1 - Tag Allocation
NEXT: Point Creep Variable #3 - "The Unit Jumper"

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