The second variable of point creep is who I call “The Point Buyer”… the applicant who instead of applying for a tag in a specific unit purchases a bonus point for the year. There are a number of reasons why an applicant may choose for a single year, or even multiple years, to simply purchase the bonus point rather then apply for a tag. I have done this before myself due to a known family commitment during the time of my desired hunt. I chose to purchase the point instead of risking the chance of actually drawing the tag and suffering the consequences (I am still convinced that had I actually applied that year I would have been blessed/cursed with the SUCCESSFUL email). I also do this on an annual basis with LE buck deer points for my father, we are hoping that in the not far off future to have a special deer hunt for him before he gets too old and due to work, church, and other responsibilities such a hunting trip is not currently practical. The reasons are numerous and often personal in relation to health, church, work, and/or family.
But these individuals are often overlooked in the overall scope of our research and preparation. In an honest moment… for many years my research leading up to the application period entailed only looking at the drawing results for the unit I was going to apply for from the previous year. Not once did I ever consider this group of individuals and the impact that they could have on my immediate success in drawing a tag.
The catalyst for this entire series was a podcast by a hunting “celebrity” who stated that he had the most bonus points for a specific LE species here in Utah. I was excited to hear his confidence looking towards the 2018 application, I do enjoy seeing my home state of Utah on his shows because I think he produces a quality on screen product. But then I decided to cross-reference the drawing results report with the bonus point purchase summary. I discovered that since he was unsuccessful in 2017 that he would appear to be the highest point holder going into the 2018 application cycle… but there were 6 individuals with the same number of bonus points who purchased their bonus point in 2017. That right there is a game changer!!! I hope that he’s smart enough to include the Bonus Point Purchase Summary in his research and realize that if any of those other 6 guys decides to apply this year for the same unit he does that his sure thing is no longer a sure thing! The inability to incorporate "The Point Buyer" into odds calculations is the great flaw in many of the odds calculators (including my own spreadsheets).
This table outlines the number of Utah resident Bonus Point Buyers, Actual Applicants, Total Active Applicants, and respective percentages of Bonus Point Buyers and Actual Applicants for the 2017 limited entry elk drawing. I realize that this is a lot of data and appears overwhelming, but take just a second to look over it carefully and digest it for just a few minutes.
| Bonus Point Group | Point Buyer | Actual Applicant | Total Active Applicant Pool | % Point Buyer | % Actual Applicant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1916 | 9067 | 10983 | 17% | 83% |
| 1 | 1378 | 6257 | 7635 | 18% | 82% |
| 2 | 1172 | 5253 | 6425 | 18% | 82% |
| 3 | 1037 | 4384 | 5421 | 19% | 81% |
| 4 | 989 | 3432 | 4421 | 22% | 78% |
| 5 | 809 | 2912 | 3721 | 22% | 78% |
| 6 | 680 | 2477 | 3157 | 22% | 78% |
| 7 | 619 | 2212 | 2831 | 22% | 78% |
| 8 | 555 | 1844 | 2399 | 23% | 77% |
| 9 | 497 | 1728 | 2225 | 22% | 78% |
| 10 | 483 | 1663 | 2146 | 23% | 77% |
| 11 | 410 | 1414 | 1824 | 22% | 78% |
| 12 | 453 | 1267 | 1719 | 26% | 74% |
| 13 | 396 | 1166 | 1562 | 25% | 75% |
| 14 | 325 | 1037 | 1362 | 24% | 76% |
| 15 | 302 | 894 | 1196 | 25% | 75% |
| 16 | 245 | 676 | 921 | 27% | 73% |
| 17 | 210 | 603 | 813 | 26% | 74% |
| 18 | 158 | 469 | 627 | 25% | 75% |
| 19 | 140 | 390 | 530 | 26% | 74% |
| 20 | 114 | 292 | 406 | 28% | 72% |
| 21 | 62 | 181 | 243 | 26% | 74% |
| 22 | 53 | 119 | 172 | 31% | 69% |
| 23 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 44% | 66% |
| 24 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 88% | 22% |
| TOTAL | 13027 | 49762 | 62789 | 21% | 79% |
If you only look at the drawing results report you are neglecting 1/5th (21%) of the total picture and the amount of the picture you are neglecting gets bigger and bigger the more points you have. Let's assume that I was one of the individuals who entered the 2017 application with 23 points but was unsuccessful and will be entering the 2018 application with 24 points. With just a quick glance of the drawing results report I can see that the one Actual Applicant with 24 points in 2017 was successful in drawing a tag. So logically it would make sense to think that all the bonus point holders ahead of me are gone and my 24 points in the 2018 drawing would place me at the very top of the drawing. Turning to the bonus point purchase summary I would see that there were 6 individuals who purchased their 25th bonus point in 2017. These 6 individuals can't be expected to purchase points forever and they will eventually apply for and draw a tag.
The most interesting part of this table is that the percentage of Point Buyers increases as your point accumulation increases… at the max point total there were 6 Point Buyers compared to only 1 Actual Applicant.
So how does this contribute to point creep? Any one of these Point Buyers can jump back in the Actual Applicant pool. If I’m applying for a high demand unit that offers just a few tags, even one of these Point Buyers deciding to become an Actual Applicant can have a dramatic impact if he/she had enough points to jump in and be right at the top for the unit we’re applying for.
PREVIOUS: Point Creep Variable #1 - Tag Allocation
NEXT: Point Creep Variable #3 - "The Unit Jumper"
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