Some Spreadsheet Changes!

Not only have I updated the Limited Entry (LE) and Once-in-a-Lifetime (OIAL) spreadsheet... but I have now linked over the completely updated and re-vamped Antlerless spreadsheet.

A quick word about a couple columns that I added last year that have been the most enlightening additions to the spreadsheet in a very long time. These two columns are "Years to Draw (MIN)" and "Years to Draw (MAX)." The Years to Draw (MIN) column shows the user how many years it will take for the user to reach what many call the max point pool assuming the applicant pool remains consistent. In other words how many years it will take for the user to reach a number of bonus points where he/she would be in consideration for a bonus tag. This is done by summing the number of applicants with more bonus points than the user and then dividing that number by the number of bonus tags. The Years to Draw (MAX) column shows the user how many years it will take for the user to be awarded a bonus tag if he is the absolute last person to be awarded the tag in that bonus point pool. This is done by performing the identical calculation as the Years to Draw (MIN) except in this calculation all the individuals with the same number of bonus points as the user are included.
So let's do a real world example just to make sure we all understand the concept behind these two new columns. Let's assume that I have 18 bonus points for LE elk and would like to draw a highly coveted Fillmore, Pahvant early any weapon tag. If I looked at the Projected Bonus Points for 2016 column I would assume that I could draw that tag within the next 4 years based upon the projection... however looking at the Years to Draw columns we see something VERY different! Based upon the 2015 applicant pool, the Years to Draw (MIN) column tells me that it will take me 16 year of applying just to reach the "max point pool" for this unit and be in consideration for a bonus permit. The Years to Draw (MAX) column tells me it could take as long as 23 years to be awarded a bonus permit assuming that I was the absolute last applicant in my bonus point pool to be awarded a bonus tag. In other words, there are enough applicants with 18 points that it could take 7 years for all the applicants with the same number of points or more to be awarded a bonus permit. Reality is that the applicant pool is ever changing as people change their applications from year to year, so a reasonable expectation to draw any given tag can be identified using these Years to Draw columns.
You'll notice that the Years to Draw columns as I have the formulas entered can actually go as low as negative one (-1). Any negative result in either of these columns should be interpreted as, "I would have drawn last year."

I received some feedback last year from an individual that thought that the calculation for the percentage should show 100% if the number of bonus points the user enters into the spreadsheet was greater than the projected number of bonus points. I'm not overly comfortable in linking a 100% odds based off a projection. I also don't like claiming 100% odds for anything relating to bonus points in the LE and OIAL drawings because I cannot foresee the variations within the applicant pool for the next year, so I elected to go with 99.9%. This should be interpreted as "virtually 100%." Another change made was to link the 99.9% odds to the column for "Years to Draw (Max)" instead of the bonus point projection. The calculation now will return a 99.9% result when the Years to Draw (Max) reaches zero. I feel much more comfortable with this interpretation of virtual guarantee of success in drawing a tag compared to basing the calculation off the projection for bonus points.

Another major change is regards to the calculations used in determining the odds for the preference points draws (e.g. general buck deer, antlerless deer, antlerless elk, and antlerless pronghorn). The previous calculations used a very similar formula as the bonus point calculations and was inherently wrong. I have updated the calculations for preference points to reflect how the preference point drawing is carried out. The calculation considers ONLY YOUR FIRST CHOICE... the DWR does not provide data on second, third, fourth, and fifth choices.

I am pleased with each of these changes, this spreadsheet is a living and breathing thing for me and it has evolved into something drastically different (and much more complex) than the very first spreadsheet that I compiled several years ago. As I continue to learn more about the process and exactly how the different drawings are carried out I am able to further refine and tune the calculations to provide the most accurate estimates for future success for those who find these spreadsheets useful. I welcome any feedback through the email links here on the right or via Twitter.