The First Trail Cam Check of the Summer

I broke away from work early on Friday afternoon, picked up a buddy at the UTA Park n Ride lot, and we headed up the canyon. The plan was to quickly check the four trail cameras that I had placed in late June then hopefully boogie up to the spot where we like to glass from. We were hoping that we would be able to get some good glassing in before the rain started.

The hike to the first set of cameras went quickly enough. The first camera that I checked (this is the one I call Camera #3) had 500+ pictures on it. I pulled my laptop out of my pack and quickly copied all those pictures over, cleared the memory card, put the card back in the camera and checked the battery status. The camera still said 40% power, so I figured I'd "let it ride" on that set of batteries. The second camera had malfunctioned and not taken any pictures. Unfortunately, this happens to me at least once every year. I re-formatted the memory card just to make sure it wasn't the card, checked the batteries (40%... so we'll "let it ride"), and set the camera again. I made sure it was taking pictures before I left it. It was slightly later than I had hoped so we hurried as fast as we could out of that area, the hike was mostly downhill so it went quickly. My grandmother timed us from the time we left until the time we got back and she clocked us at 35 minutes.

The hike in to the second set of cameras is slightly longer, more uphill elevation, but gratefully it also went quickly enough. My friend was running out of gas since he had been doing some serious physical labor all day while I sat at my desk in front of a computer screen, so I left him about halfway up the first incline and quickly checked these cameras on my own. I bumped several deer on my way to the cameras, all does and fawns. The first camera (this is the one I call Camera #1) also had 500+ pictures on it. I quickly transferred the pictures to my laptop, replaced the card, and checked the batteries. The second camera in this series had a malfunction as well and over the course of about 6 weeks it only took 3 pictures... one of which contained a lone deer butt. If I was a baseball player I'd be a Hall of Famer batting .500, but I was a little discouraged that half of my cameras had not functioned properly.

I hustled down back to the car from checking these two cameras and we were able to drive all the way up on top to the spot where I like to glass across a large canyon and we immediately began spotting game. Dark clouds were beginning to gather and roll in, off in the distance we could see flashes of lightening and hear distant thunder. It was ominous, we knew we didn't have much time at our fingertips. We had already seen deer and moose, so the primary goal of this glassing session would be to spot some elk. Not five minutes in, there she was... a lone cow fed into a clearing just below a large pine tree and stood broadside. She was way over in an area that holds a handful of ponds and one of my favorite places to hike in to on the muzzleloader deer hunt. We watched as a small herd of about a dozen elk followed single file behind her. Not long after they trailed off into the trees our visibility was completely gone. Within a couple seconds, we were getting drenched so we quickly threw our gear in the car and headed back to the cabin.

Back at the cabin, with my grandparents watching over my shoulder, we looked at the pictures and saw a good mixture of deer, moose, and elk. One camera picked up some elk where we hadn't seen any elk before and had a serious amount of moose. I'm not seeing anything that is outrageously huge... but this is a general season deer and an OTC any bull area so I'm thrilled with what I do have. Here are a handful of my favorites:

Camera #1:


Camera #3:

Check of the rest of this batch of trail camera pictures... HERE.

Some Spreadsheet Changes!

Not only have I updated the Limited Entry (LE) and Once-in-a-Lifetime (OIAL) spreadsheet... but I have now linked over the completely updated and re-vamped Antlerless spreadsheet.

A quick word about a couple columns that I added last year that have been the most enlightening additions to the spreadsheet in a very long time. These two columns are "Years to Draw (MIN)" and "Years to Draw (MAX)." The Years to Draw (MIN) column shows the user how many years it will take for the user to reach what many call the max point pool assuming the applicant pool remains consistent. In other words how many years it will take for the user to reach a number of bonus points where he/she would be in consideration for a bonus tag. This is done by summing the number of applicants with more bonus points than the user and then dividing that number by the number of bonus tags. The Years to Draw (MAX) column shows the user how many years it will take for the user to be awarded a bonus tag if he is the absolute last person to be awarded the tag in that bonus point pool. This is done by performing the identical calculation as the Years to Draw (MIN) except in this calculation all the individuals with the same number of bonus points as the user are included.
So let's do a real world example just to make sure we all understand the concept behind these two new columns. Let's assume that I have 18 bonus points for LE elk and would like to draw a highly coveted Fillmore, Pahvant early any weapon tag. If I looked at the Projected Bonus Points for 2016 column I would assume that I could draw that tag within the next 4 years based upon the projection... however looking at the Years to Draw columns we see something VERY different! Based upon the 2015 applicant pool, the Years to Draw (MIN) column tells me that it will take me 16 year of applying just to reach the "max point pool" for this unit and be in consideration for a bonus permit. The Years to Draw (MAX) column tells me it could take as long as 23 years to be awarded a bonus permit assuming that I was the absolute last applicant in my bonus point pool to be awarded a bonus tag. In other words, there are enough applicants with 18 points that it could take 7 years for all the applicants with the same number of points or more to be awarded a bonus permit. Reality is that the applicant pool is ever changing as people change their applications from year to year, so a reasonable expectation to draw any given tag can be identified using these Years to Draw columns.
You'll notice that the Years to Draw columns as I have the formulas entered can actually go as low as negative one (-1). Any negative result in either of these columns should be interpreted as, "I would have drawn last year."

I received some feedback last year from an individual that thought that the calculation for the percentage should show 100% if the number of bonus points the user enters into the spreadsheet was greater than the projected number of bonus points. I'm not overly comfortable in linking a 100% odds based off a projection. I also don't like claiming 100% odds for anything relating to bonus points in the LE and OIAL drawings because I cannot foresee the variations within the applicant pool for the next year, so I elected to go with 99.9%. This should be interpreted as "virtually 100%." Another change made was to link the 99.9% odds to the column for "Years to Draw (Max)" instead of the bonus point projection. The calculation now will return a 99.9% result when the Years to Draw (Max) reaches zero. I feel much more comfortable with this interpretation of virtual guarantee of success in drawing a tag compared to basing the calculation off the projection for bonus points.

Another major change is regards to the calculations used in determining the odds for the preference points draws (e.g. general buck deer, antlerless deer, antlerless elk, and antlerless pronghorn). The previous calculations used a very similar formula as the bonus point calculations and was inherently wrong. I have updated the calculations for preference points to reflect how the preference point drawing is carried out. The calculation considers ONLY YOUR FIRST CHOICE... the DWR does not provide data on second, third, fourth, and fifth choices.

I am pleased with each of these changes, this spreadsheet is a living and breathing thing for me and it has evolved into something drastically different (and much more complex) than the very first spreadsheet that I compiled several years ago. As I continue to learn more about the process and exactly how the different drawings are carried out I am able to further refine and tune the calculations to provide the most accurate estimates for future success for those who find these spreadsheets useful. I welcome any feedback through the email links here on the right or via Twitter.