Jul 27, 2016

2016 Limited Entry Application Recap (Deer)

At the end of January I posted an “Application Guide” for the three limited entry species (deer, elk, and pronghorn). In that post I predicted the number of bonus points that would be needed to draw each tag… so let’s go back and take a look at how the 2016 drawing actually played out. The way this will work is that I will essentially replicate the tables from my previous post however I will add the actual number of bonus points that were needed based upon the applicant pool for 2016 in parenthesis. This should help illuminate any dramatic changes within specific units and highlight the effects of some of the changes made as were described also in my previous post.
LE DEER
RESIDENTNON-RESIDENT
Unit Archery Any Weapon Muzzle loader Multi-Season Archery Any Weapon Muzzle loader Multi-Season
Antelope Island NA
Henry Mountains 17.4 (18) 19.3 (19) 19.0 (19) 20.0 (20) NA 21.6 (22) NA
Paunsaugunt 12.7 (13) 14.8 (15) 12.8 (15) 16.0 (18) 20.1 (22) 20.1 (19) 18.2 (19)
Book Cliffs 8.7 (8) 9.6 (10) 11.0 (12) 12.9 (13) 12.8 (14) NA
Book Cliffs, North 10.7 (10) 13.9 (14)
Book Cliffs, South 10.7 (11) 15.0 (16)
Fillmore, Oak Creek 6.8 (11) 14.6 (15) 11.7 (14) NA NA 21.6 (21) NA
La Sal, Dolores Triangle 8.6 (8) 13.3 (14) 13.7 (13) NA
San Juan, Elk Ridge 14.1 (13) 13.3 (14) 13.9 (14) 13.0 (16) NA 18.5 (18) NA
South Slope, Diamond Mountain 10.0 (9) 11.7 (11) 10.1 (10) 12.0 (17) 9.4 (12) 13.6 (13) 12.8 (13)
West Desert, Vernon 7.5 (8) 12.8 (12) 10.1 (10) 13.0 (14) 8.5 (8) 12.8 (12) 11.2 (10) NA
North Slope, Summit 0 (1) 0 NA
Cache, Crawford Mountain 12.7 (13) 14.9 (16)
Chalk Creek/East Canyon/Morgan-South Rich 9.0 (9) NA (9)
Fillmore New (10) NA
Kamas 6.0 (3) NA
Monroe New (10) NA
Nine Mile 6.0 (4) NA
Pine Valley 11.0 (15) NA
Plateau, Boulder/Kaiparowitz New (13) NA
Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes New (9) NA
South Slope, Yellowstone New (8) NA
Southwest Desert 14.0 (12) NA
Wasatch Mountains, East New (8) New (7)
Zion 9.0 (12) NA

This is quite a bit to digest… so let me point out a couple of highlights.
First, let’s take a look at the units where my predictions were way off!
These are what I call my “Samsonite” predictions where my predictions were more than two full points below what actually happened. Most notably is the resident Paunsaugunt muzzleloader hunt, I predicted 12.8 points to draw and the actual number of points was 15. I can’t really pinpoint a particular reason for this jump aside from perhaps the changes now allowing a powered scope. The number of bonus points for archery and any weapon were right on point with my predictions and the multi-season hunt spiked just slightly so I don’t really see anything specific showing me where applicants jumped from into this pool.
Both the resident archery and muzzleloader hunts for the Fillmore, Oak Creek showed a spike. The spike for archery was pretty significant, my prediction was 6.8 points but it ended up being 11! I predicted the muzzleloader hunt at 11.7 points and it came in at 14, not as dramatic a change as the archery hunt but still enough to probably hurt a couple applicants. Interestingly enough the number of applicants greatly increased for both archery and muzzleloader compared to 2015. Archery jumped from 75 to 120 applicants (+60%) and muzzleloader jumped from 129 to 179 applicants (+40%). The rifle hunt did not show nearly as dramatic an increase from 820 to 863 (+5%). I wonder why the archery and muzzleloader application pool would jump so dramatically when the rifle remained largely unchanged. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
The San Juan, Elk Ridge and South Slope, Diamond Mountain multi-season hunts showed a significant spike. The San Juan was projected at 13.0 points but actually took 16 points and the South Slope was projected at 12.0 but actually took 17. I chalk much of this up to this only being the second year of these tags existence so popularity is catching on. We also run into the issue of few tags being offered for these hunts so just one or two applicants moving their applications around can have a pretty dramatic impact on the overall applicant pools here. Remember for the hunt units that have been around for a long time I have many years worth of data to base my predictions on… with these multi-season deer hunts which started last year I only have one years worth of data to make a prediction. Over the next couple years my predictions will become more and more accurate, but for right now they are pretty rough on all the multi-season hunts.
The same can be said for the new late season muzzleloader hunts on the Pine Valley and Zion units. My predictions for both these hunts were low. I predicted 11.0 points for Pine Valley but it actually was 15 and I predicted 9.0 for Zion but it was actually 12. I’m honestly very happy seeing the numbers from many of these new late season muzzleloader hunts. I’m seeing many of these late season muzzleloader hunts that take nearly the same number of bonus points as some of our long standing limited entry deer hunts and that leads me to believe that there are a good number of applicants that see these hunts as viable alternatives to the more traditional limited entry hunts. Additionally, I don’t think that we can discount the fact that these muzzleloader season dates are the absolute latest that they could ever be, so this is as close to hunting mule deer bucks in the rut that you can get here in Utah.
The only non-resident unit with a prediction that was way off was South Slope Diamond Mountain archery. I had predicted 9.4 points for this hunt but it was actually 12. Honestly, I’m not sure what an explanation could be for this dramatic increase. The number of non-resident applicants increased from 44 to 59 (+34%) but the number of resident applicants was stable (241 in 2015 compared to 246 in 2016). It makes me wonder if one of the application services (Easton’s, Huntin’ Fool, etc.) had this unit listed in its pre-application publication… I don’t subscribe to any such publications so it’s purely speculation on my part.
Now let’s take a look at units where my prediction was entirely too high and my predictions were more than two full points higher than what actually happened.
The only two units where my predictions were too high were the Kamas and Southwest Desert late muzzleloader hunts. I would largely attribute this to the hunts only being around for one year and the lack of data to calculate a reasonable prediction. As I mentioned above, as the next couple years pass and more annual data is available the predictions will become more accurate.
Overall, I think the predictions that I had made going into the 2016 drawing were pretty good… as always when attempting to predict what a large numbers of individuals will do when faced with so many different options there are outliers, but the distribution graph presented below which shows the difference between my prediction and the actual result shows a clear “bell shaped curve” with the height of the bell being at the center (or very near zero). There are fancy descriptive statistics that a trained statistician could use to provide further proof but I am neither fancy nor trained.


Stay tuned for the recaps of the elk and pronghorn drawings!

Jun 6, 2016

Trail Cameras Set for the Summer

I was able to break away for a couple hours on Saturday morning and take a quick hike to put two of my four trail cameras up. 
Camera #1 was placed overlooking a small seep a short hike (about 1/3 of a mile) up the hill and two small draws to the east of the family cabin.  This was a location that I revisited with a trail camera last year after abandoning it several years ago because I had only seen smaller bucks.  Last year I got a number of pictures of some very good bucks, a good handful of elk, and quite a few moose.  I set the camera in the exact same location as last year.  The camera is north facing nicely protected from direct sunlight by the tree branches which will keep it shaded for almost the entire day which seems to help with the IR sensor sensitivity. In the image below the seep is the green grass just to the right of the clump of dead scrub brush just left of center.

I decided to do a little exploring with camera #2... last fall on the muzzleloader deer hunt I hiked to a spot that we call "The Big Rock" and sat for the morning. I could hear animals walking around in the bowl to the south of the rock and started blowing a couple soft cow calls. I could hear something walking towards me so I kept my eyes peeled. It took about 20 minutes but a spike elk popped out of the brush about 35 yards away. Just when he popped out a herd of a dozen elk ran over the little knoll I was on between the spike and I, they must have come to my calls but from the other direction and had caught my scent at the last minute. The hike from the seep where I placed camera #1 to the rock is not far so I figured it would still be pretty easy to check these cameras as the same time. I made it up to the Big Rock and found a good trail leading into the trees. As I worked my way along this trail the trees and underbrush got really thick. I had no idea that it was that thick in there. After a couple hundred yards I was getting tired of fighting with the deadfall and low hanging branches but I pressed on a little further. Just then something bizarre happened... I entered into an area where the undergrowth opened right up underneath the canopy of the trees. It was like a little clearing underneath the high canopy of trees. I could see three well used game trails that crisscrossed the "clearing", one at the top, one in the middle, and one at the bottom (which is the one I was following). Down the center of the clearing was a single trail going from top to bottom connecting them all. It was too cool of a place to pass up so I walked up the trail that lead to the top and found a nice big tree that would allow me to place the camera and aim it sharply downhill such that all three trails that crisscross the "clearing" would be visible on any pictures taken and directly in line with the trail leading down the center of the clearing. This is a panoramic image so it is a bit distorted but you can see a trail coming in from the left and going out on the right... another trail is just behind the two clumps trees in the center, and the third trail is just in front of the trees at the edge of the clearing.


I'll give these cameras several weeks to "marinade" and I'll try to get a quick check of them sometime in early July... I'm anxious to see what camera #2 sees.

May 24, 2016

Tips for Success Series: A Scouting Strategy

Now that the Utah results are out and we all know where we will be hunting this fall… I think this would be an appropriate time to roll out the next installment in my “Tips for Success” series: Have a Scouting Strategy.
Several years ago I made arrangements with a friend “to go scouting” and told my wife my plans. She looked perplexed and asked why I was “going scouting” with one of my friends and not taking all the neighborhood boys. Her understanding of Scouting was the Boy Scouts… it took some explanation to help her understand what I was actually doing. She got a little upset and said, “So you’re just going to look for deer?” The emphasis she put on the word look was unmistakable, from where she stood she saw absolutely zero value in the activity I had planned. “Do you expect the deer to be there in September?” Again, the emphasis on the word expect confirmed that she thought I was an absolute fool! That only compounded when I responded. “Yes. I hope so,” and I headed out the door. Although those first few scouting trips were met with considerable resistance, it didn’t take long for my wife to see the value in these scouting trips. She has consistently seen meat put in our freezer over the last few years.
My wife was correct in her simple assumption of what scouting is… looking for deer (or elk, or moose, or whatever). That is exactly what I did on those first few scouting trips… and thinking back as I look at those first few scouting trips they were pretty comical. I would drive around looking for animals, stop at a couple places, spend about 15 minutes looking around through binoculars, then head home. Don’t get me wrong, I still gained valuable information from those trips and learned far more than if I had remained at home watching television.
As we enter the summer scouting season leading up to the 2016 fall hunts, let me share some of the things found in my 2016 Scouting Strategy.
A herd of elk on Google Earth.
Before I ever step foot in the mountains I spend a fair amount of time on Google Earth (GE). Ok, full disclosure and honesty here… I spend A LOT of time on GE. I have a topographical overlay saved into my GE and toggle back and forth between the maps looking for spots that look worthy of an in-person, on foot investigation. A VERY valuable feature of GE is that it acts as a log for me for each scouting and hunting trip. I create a new folder for every year, and in that folder I will save placemarks of where deer, elk, and moose were spotted and if fortunate enough where a buck or bull was killed. Following each hunt I will trace out the trails that I hiked and add notes about which days and the time of day when I made those hikes. I now have a good working database of my scouting and hunting history. I am a very visual person so I find the use of GE very beneficial by displaying all the placemarks and trails on the screen at once I can identify very clear patterns. This helps narrow down where I do my scouting based upon the tags I have in my pocket. This is where my first bit of advice to pick an area and stick with it really becomes beneficial in influencing my scouting. Over the last several years I have learned exactly where to go to find deer and I have also learned that I need to look in different spots to find elk. In many ways, GE helps me determine where to go for the next phase in my Scouting Strategy…. placing trail cameras.
Placing trail cameras with my two oldest kids.
Many love them, many hate them… whether you use them or not, no doubt you’ve likely come across a water hole with a trail camera or two (or six) surrounding it. I use trail cameras, and I really enjoy them. I currently have 4 different cameras that I scatter across the property to be my eyes when I cannot be there myself… but I tend to use them a little differently than many guys I know. I use them to investigate the new areas that I had identified on GE or to revisit old areas that I had moved on from as I discovered new areas. Ultimately this means that I probably won’t actually hunt where I place the cameras this year… go figure, right!?! My plan this year is to place two cameras in new spots to “investigate” these areas and then two cameras to “monitor” areas that were once my go to spots yet I don’t want to lose touch with them! I don’t spend a lot on my trail cameras, mostly because I know of the propensity for these types of things to grow legs and walk away. Even on private property I have not been immune, although I have yet to have a camera stolen I have had them vandalized or tampered with. It is frustrating for sure, however I strap a camera onto a tree and walk away knowing full well that I am taking that risk and each time I return to check a memory card and refresh batteries and find my camera still on the tree I consider myself fortunate. There is varying opinion on how often to check a trail camera, in some cases I’ve heard of guys checking them every couple days. My preference, and this could simply be a product of my busy everyday schedule, is to check them every five to six weeks. This may sound like a long time, and it does make it difficult to sit at my desk job and wonder about the pictures I may have waiting for me… or if the camera has even been working right… or if the camera is even still there! But I have found that letting them “marinade” (as I call it) for several weeks between checks to be very successful. Primarily, I limit the number of times I check them to also limit my scent and my disturbance to the area. Whether that is actually the case or the reason for my success, I’ll never know but I’m going to continue to think that. One additional really cool benefit to the trail cameras is that it gives me something tangible to share with my family members that hunt. They don’t share the same passion and zeal for the “off season” type stuff like scouting that I have but it is not difficult to get them to sit down for ten minutes to look at my latest batch of trail cam pics. It is fun to see them scroll through the images and stop and say, “Now, that’s a nice buck! If I see him in September…” I find that over the course of five to six weeks I can get several thousand images from a well placed camera, however only about one third of those images will show an animal in the frame. It can be tedious to wade through several thousand images, but I can honestly say that the end result of several hundred images of deer, elk, moose, coyotes, etc. is well worth the time spent. On this blog I have a page dedicated to trail camera pictures, and I have selected just a handful of my favorites from each year from the thousands that I have saved (check it out HERE).
The last part of my scouting plan involves my eyes, a pair of binoculars and spotting scope, and my boots. I’ll be honest here… I bought my first trail camera in 2009, but it wasn’t until 2014 that I had the conversation mentioned at the start of this article with my wife and began to spend actual time outside of hunting season looking for game with my own eyes. I had such a good time actually spending time behind my binoculars that I seriously considered never setting another trail camera again and going solely to an in person method of scouting. I can’t believe how much information I was missing by relying completely on the trail cameras. When on these scouting trips I do not like to get overly aggressive and get too far into the area, I prefer to set up and glass from long distances so that I can truly sit back and observe the animals. This allows me to see the usual travel routes these animals use to and from different areas, since the muzzleloader hunt is still relatively early in the season many of these travel routines are still being used by the deer that I’m chasing at the time. I usually am only able to do this in the evenings, and I have two or three different spots that I go sit. These spots are high in elevation and provide me with good vantage points. From where I park my car, I can see almost a 360° panorama and can glass several of the places that now top on my list. A short hike from the little parking spot and I can peer into a large south facing bowl that is usually bustling with action while still being able to see a few of my other top spots. I like to go on these scouting trips with a friend or two. We set up plenty far away from any animals so being quiet is not a requirement, we can converse without much concern. It’s during these scouting sessions that I have gotten to know my hunting companions best as we talk about work, family, and life in general. We also take time to relive some hunting memories and talk about what worked in the past and what we’d like to try in the future. We begin these glassing sessions by dividing up the mountain and looking over a specific section of terrain. But once we spot an animal, especially a buck or bull that we want to inspect further, it generally devolves into what I would consider a glassing free-for-all. I take mental notes and enter that data into GE when I get home. I always remind myself to take lots of pictures but inevitably I walk away with very few pictures taken. When the animals start to emerge and spotting them gets fast and furious I often forget entirely about my camera. Here are a few things that I have learned on these evening glassing trips…
First, my personal comfort is absolutely paramount on these scouting trips. The first few trips I would find a relatively decent spot on the ground, set up my spotting scope, and start scanning with my binoculars. I quickly learned that I needed a more comfortable place to sit. This all depends on your personal preference, but I carry a relatively lightweight three legged camp stool to sit on now. I have heard of guys buying the little kneeler pads for gardening and sitting on those, they work just fine as well. If you are comfortable you will be able to spend more time behind the glass instead of constantly fidgeting around, changing seating positions trying to get comfortable, or standing up because your leg or foot has fallen asleep. Second, also related to my general comfort, is to bring a jacket whether you think you need it or not. Even in the summer high in the mountains when the sun goes down it gets chilly and it’s very hard to hold still when you are cold. There have been times where I have had my jacket and not ended up needing it… but it’s better to have it and not need it than need/want it and not have it!
Third, I don’t do extended glassing sessions “off hand” anymore, I always begin by setting up my tripod with an adapter that I created for my binoculars and begin glassing with my binoculars on the tripod. The tripod adds a measure of stability that I could never achieve by just holding the binoculars in my hands. I have noticed a significant difference in my glassing ability and productivity by putting my binoculars on my tripod and having the glass completely steady… I used to spot something off hand with my binoculars and switch immediately to the spotting scope. Now, with those same binoculars on a tripod I switch out to the spotting scope much less frequently. With a good solid rest under my binoculars I am able to evaluate bucks and bulls at distances where I would have previously only been able to see them clearly with the spotting scope and I find that the binoculars are much friendlier to my eyes than the spotting scope. On those first few glassing sessions I bet that I spent 70-80% of the time looking through my spotting scope… now I spend 70-80% of the time looking through my binoculars. And fourth, stay behind your binoculars until that last little bit of light is gone! My first few scouting trips I decided to head back to the car with light remaining simply so I wouldn’t have to do some hiking in the dark. That last twenty minutes or so of light, after the sun sets and goes down behind the peaks to the west, have been some of the most productive moments. Set aside the desire to get an early start on the hike back to the car, sure I know it’s easier to get back on the road home quickly while there is still light but you will be missing what I consider the greatest moments the woods can give you. The problem with experiencing this moment of peace is that it has always resulted in a flurry of animal activity and a scramble to see everything you can in the fading light. It is peace and chaos simultaneously… it’s magic.
The last piece of my Scouting Strategy is making sure all the pieces of this strategy fit into my real life responsibilities. I would love to spend more time on the mountain just looking for deer, elk, and moose but honestly the time that I do get is very limited.

May 10, 2016

Tips for Success Series: "Pick a Spot & Stick With It!"

I’ve wanted to write up a series of brief articles to post here based upon the things that I have learned over the last several years that have dramatically impacted the success that I have experienced on my hunts. Here is the first of such articles.
The absolute best advice that I could give to any individual who is just starting to get into hunting is: Pick a spot and stick with it.
If you were to simply go to the Utah DWR website or go to the DWR store and look at maps of the hunt units here in Utah (or really anywhere in the western US) you’ll notice one thing… they are all huge. All of the individual units contain more acreage than what one hunter can cover in one season, heck multiple seasons. So the challenge faced by every hunter out there is to identify which of these hunt units we will spend our time and energy actually hunting and where we really hope to find the animals we are looking for. This is an overwhelming task, especially for those with zero experience or knowledge of a specific area.
Our camp on my grandpa's Central Mountain, Manti
 elk hunt with the mountain we hunted in the background.
I experienced this recently when my grandfather drew a Central Mountains, Manti limited entry rifle elk tag. It was a brand new hunting unit to me, I had never once stepped foot on the Manti chasing any kind of big game animal. We were starting the research process on this unit from scratch. I was designated as researcher for the pre-hunt scouting so I went through a couple different steps to “pick a spot.” I immediately turned to the internet for any information regarding different locations within the unit. With a list of locations (mostly vague generalized area names) I turned to Google Earth and began looking for areas that would appear to fit my grandpa’s hunting style. From that time on Google Earth I was able to refine those generalized locations to specific locations that looked promising to me. With those locations in mind I took a drive with my grandpa to those areas just to check them out and we made a preliminary decision where we would focus based on what looked best to us. As opening morning rolled around and the hunt progressed we rarely ventured far from that spot. We picked a spot and we stuck with it… for better or worse (2014 Rifle Elk).
Whether you are hunting general season deer, general season spike or any bull elk, or a limited entry hunt you inevitably have to make a choice of where to hunt. The permits issued will tell you which unit(s) within the state you can legally pursue game in, however within each unit are numerous possibilities. In many units there are areas with different types of terrain, different levels of access, and inevitably differing amounts of other hunters and the game you are after. This is where you need to make a decision… and once you make a decision stick with it. Admittedly, this advice applies best to general season hunts where you can make an initial decision then year after year as you hunt that same area you can build a knowledge base that will ultimately yield consistent success. Limited entry hunts are a little bit different because the hunt is usually a one-time deal or if you do return for a second hunt there it is often years later. I have heard of great success using this philosophy on limited entry hunts if a large hunting group decides that they will all apply for the same hunt individually year after year and as each member of the group draws their tag they build their knowledge of the unit and share the knowledge and experience within the group.
Let me illustrate the benefit of picking a spot and sticking with it through two personal experiences. First the positive… I have some family property and have hunted that area for deer for nearly 20 years now. In 2012 a couple friends and I decided to try hunting elk there for the first time. We had very little knowledge of the elk herd in the area, we really began the hunt not knowing if we would even see an elk. We considered the hunt an educational experience more than anything, we ended up seeing a handful of elk but were not able to create any real chances for filling our tags (2012 Muzzleloader Elk). The things that we learned on that first hunt influenced the scouting strategy that we put in place the following summer. Later that fall, with the knowledge gained from the previous hunt and a summer of scouting, we had a much clearer idea of where we thought the elk were going to be. Success came for me on the second evening when I was able to shoot my first bull elk, a spike. We saw even more elk during the 2013 hunt and learned even more (2013 Rifle Elk). In 2014, now with two hunts and two summers of focused scouting, we felt that we had a pretty good base of knowledge and were anticipating success. We found elk easily and regularly during that hunt, and on the second morning I again tasted success as I was able to shoot a nice little 5x5 bull (2014 Muzzleloader Elk). In 2015 we continued to build our knowledge and had an especially successful year shooting two cows, a nice buck deer, and narrowly missing our chance at a couple nice little 5x5 bulls (2015 Muzzleloader Elk).
General area where a couple nice bulls were missed
on the 2015 muzzleloader elk hunt.
Over the course of the last four years we have built a solid knowledge base on our little spot, and over the course of the four years we have been able to increase our chances of success each year.
Now, the negative… after the 2009 deer hunt we decided that we were not seeing the number of deer that we thought we should be seeing on our family property. So for 2010 we determined to hunt a different area of the state. None of us had hunted this new area in more than 25 years, so essentially we were going into this area as if it were brand new. We didn’t do any scouting and showed up for the hunt the Tuesday before the muzzleloader opener and thought we should be able to find deer pretty easily. Four very frustrating days later we drove home and promised ourselves that we would never again discount the value of the knowledge that we had of the family property that made it seem so easy to find deer and have success (2010 Muzzleloader Deer).
One of the nicer bucks that was taken by my brother
on one of his afternoon drives.
My brother is a “road hunter” extraordinaire (road hunters benefit from this philosophy as well) and along with my father and grandfather have developed a routine that they follow religiously throughout the day. Each morning they make the same turns, following the same route each morning. Shortly after lunch they made a short drive into one specific area. Then in the evening they follow a different route for the evening drive. I don’t hunt with them much because I prefer to spend more time hiking around… but honestly, those guys have it figured out! Over the span of the last three years they have killed five deer on their brief afternoon drive just driving to this one specific spot at 1:45 in the afternoon and each of those deer have all been killed in the same small clearing.
With this philosophy you should desire to become so familiar with an area that you know exactly where and when you should be seeing deer, elk, or moose (or whatever you are pursuing). You will become instantly aware if something is “off”… if another hunter, or perhaps another predator, has been through the area. You will also become instantly aware if everything is set up for you perfectly. In my opinion, this is when hunting gets exceptionally fun.
The north facing slope where I watched the herd of elk before
shooting a cow near the water hole that is out of the picture. 
Last fall, on the muzzleloader deer hunt a friend and I hiked into my now favorite spot and just like we had done the two previous years we planned to sit over a small water hole for the evening. The bowl was quiet as we worked through the aspens and before we even arrived at our predetermined spot we began to spot elk working across the north facing slope that we would be watching the rest of the evening. We quickly recognized that conditions were perfect, the elk and other animals had been unpressured, and there was no question that we would at least have one opportunity to fill the cow elk tags that we also had in our pockets. Four hours later, after watching a small elk herd for the entire afternoon, three cows made their way to the bottom of the hillside to the small pond. My friend and I had waited patiently a mere 60 yards from that small pond for this opportunity. We had sat over this same pond the previous year with the exact same result, except last year I decided to pass on a cow elk because a decent little buck was also spotted just up the hill. I have absolute confidence that I will be able to go to the same spot next year and with favorable conditions be able to fill my cow elk tag.
The most difficult part of picking a spot and sticking with it is just that… picking the area or spot! My only advice is to find something that looks good to you. If it looks good to you then you will be more inclined to put in a little more effort to try and figure it out. Do some research, spend some time on Google Earth looking at satellite imagery, if possible go have a look at it yourself on a scouting trip, or if you can’t scout spend some quality time there during the hunt checking it out. Google Earth is a phenomenal tool… there have been many new spots within my area that I have explored thoroughly on Google Earth then later was able to go and see firsthand and it felt like I had been there before.
The second most difficult part of picking a spot and sticking with it is to know how long to stick with it especially if the area isn’t producing like you want it to. This is a tough call to make. Giving up on a spot you thought looked good is like admitting defeat and nobody likes that. None of us want to invest any amount of time in an area only to find that the animals just aren’t there and be left with the feeling that all the time was wasted. On the flip side, nobody wants to give up on a potentially great spot too soon. I suffer from this… not wanting to give up too soon, especially with some of the spots that showed real promise but have never really developed into anything tangible.
Inevitably as you develop a knowledge base of an area you will learn not only the areas that are productive but also the areas that don’t warrant your future time. I have one spot that I hunted three years in a row for deer beginning back in 2011… it was a very good area and I had the opportunity to shoot a very nice 4x4 mule deer buck there in 2012. However, since 2013 I have not been back. I haven’t abandoned it because it is a poor area, but I have spent my time in other areas of the property. I know that area is still productive and I have it on a list of places to check out but it is now a little further down my list than it was three years ago. Then I have another place that I set a couple of trail cameras for two summers in 2010 and 2011, and over the course of two summers I got mostly pictures of small bucks and moose. Nothing that I saw really interested me in that spot so after two summers I abandoned it entirely. On a whim this last summer (2015) I put a couple trail cameras there again and saw a number of nice bucks and lots of elk… don’t forget that over the course of several years things can change! As you develop your knowledge base of an area and some spots fall off your radar don’t neglect them entirely, be sure to circle back every several years because these animals move around.
One of my "go to places" that I no longer go to regularly.
The hardest part is making the call to move on from those really good spots to learn better spots. All of the spots that I have high on my list today and hunt every year were not on my list three years ago, and many of those places that were my “go to” places several years ago now hardly get a second glance as they are well down the list of options. I don’t think this is a bad thing, it’s a consequence of learning more and more about the area that I hunt and really dialing in on just a couple specific spots that are exceptionally productive for me during the hunting seasons.
The key to this philosophy is that it takes a little bit of time to learn the potential of any spot that you pick to hunt. You may not have success (in the terms of a filled tag) immediately when you go into a new area but it is my opinion that if you give yourself some time to learn it then success will come and eventually be had on a regular and consistent basis.

Jan 27, 2016

My 2016 Utah Application Guide for LE Species

On the eve of the opening of the bucks, bulls, and once-in-a-lifetime application period I’d like to share some of my thoughts concerning this application cycle. There have been a number of changes made over the winter that will have a potentially dramatic trickledown effect on a number of the hunts that need to be considered by many applicants. Additionally, I’d like to provide a guide for applicants looking to gain a better understanding of what to expect from this year’s application cycle.
Let’s start with the changes… there are a handful. Some will have a much greater impact than others for sure. If you open up the 2016 Big Game Application Booklet you’ll notice on the first couple pages that there is an extensive list of items listed under the “What’s New?” heading. I’ll not go into each of these items… only the ones that I think could have an immediate impact on the application trends that I have tracked since 2006.
Over the last few years there have been a number of additional hunt opportunities for limited entry deer. These opportunities are for muzzleloader hunters with dates that coincide with the general muzzleloader elk hunts. I think this is a great opportunity to spread some point holders around, but ultimately I don’t think that it does much to affect the top point holders at all. Last year was the first year of this new hunt opportunity in a select handful of units so I don’t have any data currently to make any speculation on trends. Suffice it to say, in my opinion, if the DWR really wants to make this a viable option and really potentially affect those top point holders… they need to extend the hunt so that it corresponds more with the mule deer rut. As it currently stands the hunt is in the pre-rut with this year’s dates being the latest they could be (you’ll hear a lot about this year’s hunt dates as we work through the breakdown of the different species) but it still seems to end a bit early to really get much into the rut. If the DWR were to move this only slightly, pushing it back by a week or two, I think you would really see some significant interest from guys/gals that have higher numbers of bonus points.
There will be a few new hunts on limited entry elk units this fall that will share the same hunt dates as the general rifle spike hunts. These hunts will be available on the following units: Box Elder, Grouse Creek; Paunsaugunt; Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes; West Desert, Deep Creek. There was considerable talk in the Wildlife Board Meeting when this was approved to include the Central Mountains, Manti and possibly even Wasatch Mountains units in this program but it was determined to pilot the program this year in these four units to determine its viability. Although this new hunt provides what I would consider a unique opportunity to bring back a large “family camp” with a limited entry tag holder hunting with family members who are also hunting spikes, I don’t see this hunt really affecting the top pointholders in the application and dramatically affecting the drawing odds for the more popular early rifle hunts on those units. I would anticipate the biggest draw for these hunts probably coming from the late rifle hunts with the archery, early rifle, and muzzleloader draws largely remaining unchanged.
A couple of hunts will be discontinued this year. The two that could pose the most impactful are the closure of the Beaver nanny mountain goat hunt and the closure youth late any bull hunt. Those applicants hoping to shorten their wait for a once-in-a-lifetime (OIAL) mountain goat tag by applying for the nanny tag will now only have one option, Ogden. This could have some pretty serious impact on the drawing odds for the Ogden nanny hunt. For the youth late any bull tag, it’s just unfortunate to see an opportunity for young hunters go by the wayside. But I understand that much of the area that this hunt was held in was private property, and there is still the early youth any bull which is still a unique OIAL experience for young hunters.
And finally, the regulation limiting muzzleloader hunters to a fixed power, non-magnifying aiming system has been lifted. Hunters are now free to use the scope of their choice on their muzzleloader regardless of magnification. I don’t see this change affecting the limited entry (LE) deer and pronghorn draws too much. The deer application trends show that archery, rifle, and muzzleloader bonus points pools are so close together that there would really be no incentive to switch from rifle to muzzleloader. The elk drawing on the other hand is where this change could absolutely be a game changer. As it currently stands it takes an average of four fewer bonus points to draw a LE muzzleloader elk tag compared to the same LE early rifle tag, and with the LE elk dates still providing hunters the chance to chase rut crazed bulls, this could be a huge incentive to make that switch. Additionally, electronic rangefinding devices attached to bows are also now legal. I don’t see this affecting any of the other (rifle, muzzleloader) draws and causing a real deviation from the trends for the archery applicant pool, though.
Some interesting changes to be certain and I will be interested to see how these changes affect this year’s application pool and compare them to the historical trends.
For those of you looking for any little tidbit of information, or possibly tips, to increase your chances at drawing a tag this year… let’s take a species by species look at this and break it down. I will not discuss the CWMU units at this time.
LE DEER
I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe that the trends will change for this year. This is how many bonus points I think it will take to draw each deer tag:
RESIDENTNON-RESIDENT
Unit Archery Any Weapon Muzzleloader Multi-Season Archery Any Weapon Muzzleloader Multi-Season
Antelope Island NA
Henry Mountains 17.4 19.3 19.0 20.0 NA 21.6 NA
Paunsaugunt 12.7 14.8 12.8 16.0 20.1 20.1 18.2
Book Cliffs 8.7 9.6 11.0 12.9 12.8 NA
Book Cliffs, North 10.7 13.9
Book Cliffs, South 10.7 15.0
Fillmore, Oak Creek 6.8 14.6 11.7 NA NA 21.6 NA
La Sal, Dolores Triangle 8.6 13.3 13.7 NA
San Juan, Elk Ridge 14.1 13.3 13.9 13.0 NA 18.5 NA
South Slope, Diamond Mountain 10.0 11.7 10.1 12.0 9.4 13.6 12.8
West Desert, Vernon 7.5 12.8 10.1 13.0 8.5 12.8 11.2 NA
North Slope, Summit 0 0 NA
Cache, Crawford Mountain 12.7 14.9
Chalk Creek/East Canyon/Morgan-South Rich 9.0 NA
Kamas 6.0 NA
Nine Mile 6.0 NA
Pine Valley 11.0 NA
Southwest Desert 14.0 NA
Zion 9.0 NA

“NA” means that there has historically only been one tag offered so the tag is issued through a lottery style drawing. “Blank” means that there have historically not been tags offered for this unit.
I expect a little bit of fluctuation with the muzzleloader only units (Chalk Creek, Kamas, Nine Mile, Pine Valley, Southwest Desert, and Zion) simply because I only have one year of data to reference. I also expect some fluctuation with the Multi-Season hunts as well since last year (2015) was the first time these hunts were offered. In the coming years I expect the trends to become more clear for these hunts as more data points are obtained.
LE ELK
The permission now of magnifying scopes on muzzleloaders I think will have the greatest impact with the LE elk drawing. I can only speculate, but I would anticipate an increase in applicants for the muzzleloader tags. One thing that may even out the applicants somewhat are the season dates… these season dates are the latest dates that are possible under Utah’s hunt date system. This year I would expect to see a spike in archery applications as this year the archery dates are the “best” they could be for hunting during the first part of the rut. Applicants for the early rifle tag should remain relatively constant… not much changes with these rifle hunts because of their popularity. The muzzleloader hunts may see a slight drop off because of how late the season starts (September 28 compared to last year’s opening date of September 23), however this potential slight drop off could be completely wiped out by the magnifying scope change! The late rifle hunt is where I think most guys/gals will jump from to potentially hunt the new October hunts during the general spike hunts. This is how many points I think it will take to draw each elk tag:
RESIDENTNON-RESIDENT
Unit Archery Early Any Weapon Late Any Weapon Muzzle loader Multi-Season Archery Early Any Weapon Late Any Weapon Muzzle loader Multi-Season
Beaver, East 11.8 20..3 15.0 18.1 NA NA NA NA NA
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek South 5.9 17.7 10.3 13.2 19.1 13.7 18.2 14.3 15.7
Book Cliffs, Little Creek Roadless 6.3 17.3 13.5 NA NA 20.0 NA NA
Box Elder, Grouse Creek 14.5 8.7 NA
Box Elder, Pilot Mountain 18.4
Cache, Meadowville 0.7 4.3 2.1 0.7 23.0 NA 10.3 3.0 NA
Cache, North 0.4 8.7 6.5 4.0 NA NA 10.2 NA NA
Cache, South 3.6 13.5 9.7 9.4 17.6 6.3 13.5 9.0 12.5
Central Mountains, Manti 4.5 14.5 8.8 10.7 18.7 10.7 15.0 11.1 13.6 NA
Central Mountains, Nebo 3.2 12.1 11.3 5.2 16.1 9.3 NA NA NA
Fillmore, Pahvant 13.3 21.8 15.8 18.3 22.5 NA NA 13.2 20.0
La Sal, Dolores Triangle 15.1
La Sal, La Sal Mountains 3.5 13.4 7.2 9.2 18.0 12.9 16.9 13.2 18.0
Monroe 13.6 20.9 17.1 18.1 NA NA NA NA
Mt. Dutton 3.6 14.9 12.1 11.7 19.3 14.4 17.5 15.1 13.0
Nine Mile, Anthro 2.8 14.7 11..5 12.1 NA NA NA
North Slope, Three Corners 6.5 15.1 6.5 NA NA 14.8 NA
Oquirrh-Stansbury 4.1 13.4 10.3 9.4 NA NA NA NA NA
Panguitch Lake 6.7 16.1 11.4 12.2 20.4 12.4 20.2 13.3 NA
Paunsaugunt 2.3 10.9 7.0 4.5 13.1 8.8 14.4 11.0 NA
Plateau, Boulder/Kaiparowitz 11.6 18.3 14.0 16.5 21.9 16.0 19.8 17.8 NA
Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lake 3.7 13.4 10.4 9.1 17.3 10.2 16.6 13.7 13.8 NA
San Juan 16.3 21.6 15.0 19.9 22.6 NA 22.4 NA NA
South Slope, Diamond Mountain 4.5 11.5 11.2 8.0 NA NA 15.1 NA NA
Southwest Desert 7.7 18.9 12.1 14.4 20.2 13.5 20.2 16.6 17.9
Wasatch Mountains 4.3 14.4 11.7 8.4 18.9 8.6 13.8 11.3 11.2 15.2
West Desert, Deep Creek 2.5 13.4 10.7 8.7 NA NA NA NA NA

Again, “NA” means that there has historically only been one tag offered so the tag is issued through a lottery style drawing and “blank” means that there have historically not been tags offered for this unit.
I do expect to see some change to the trend in the muzzleloader applications this year, but the extent of the change is unknown. This will be the most interesting thing to see when the results for this application cycle are released.
LE PRONGHORN
Much like with the LE deer drawing, I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe there will be any changes in the trends that I have observed. This is how many points I anticipate it will take to draw a pronghorn tag:
RESIDENTNON-RESIDENT
Unit Archery Any Weapon Muzzleloader Archery Any Weapon Muzzleloader
Beaver 2.0 4.7 NA
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek 2.6 7.1 NA
Book Cliffs, South (Cisco) 2.6 5.1 NA 10.8
Box Elder, Pilot Mountain NA 8.3 NA
Box Elder, Promontory 0.3 3.9 NA
Box Elder, Puddle Valley 6.8 6.8 NA
Box Elder, Snowville 2.0 5.9 NA
Cache/Morgan – South Rich/Ogden 0.8 5.6 3.0 7.0 5.3 6.0
Fillmore, Black Rock Desert 4.9 6.3 NA
Kaiparowitz NA
La Sal, Potash/South Cisco NA
La Sal, South Cisco 4.7 8.1
Mt Dutton/Paunsaugunt
Mt. Dutton/Paunsaugunt, John’s Valley 3.2 NA
Nine Mile, Anthro 2.7 5.7 7.9
Nine Mile, Range Creek 8.6 NA
North Slope, Summit 8.0
North Slope, West Daggett – Three Corners 3.6 6.1 NA 6.8
Panguitch Lake 5.8 NA
Pine Valley 3.1 5.0 NA 6.6
Plateau 1.1 4.2 0.9 2.7 6.0 7.7
San Juan, Hatch Point 7.8
San Rafael, Desert 9.3 NA
San Rafael, North 4.2 9.3 NA 16.8
South Slope, Bonanza-Diamond Mountain 4.0 8.6 6.1
South Slope, Vernal 3.0 6.8 NA
Southwest Desert 2.4 5.1 1.0 6.9 10.9 9.0
West Desert, Riverbed 6.8 11.6 NA NA
West Desert, Rush Valley 5.9 10.6 NA
West Desert, Snake Valley 4.6 10.1 13.5

The muzzleloader pronghorn hunt has only been around for a couple years and it looks to me like it still hasn’t quite caught on yet. That makes the muzzleloader options great “easy” draws if a guy/gal would be interested in chasing pronghorn with a muzzleloader… and with the scope magnification restrictions now lifted I’m hopeful that these hunts become more popular and the DWR opens muzzleloader seasons in other units.
Check out the species specific analysis pages for more information on the LE deer, elk, and pronghorn draws. Also check out those same pages for more information on OIAL species.

Popular Posts