Utah Big Game Odds: The single most helpful collection of information available on Utah draws.: 2019

Dec 31, 2019

Drawing Analysis: Once-in-a-Lifetime Mountain Goat

In preparation for the Utah Big Game application period opening Jan 30th this year I will be releasing a species by species analysis of drawing odds. Here is the schedule I will follow:
- Moose - Dec 26 (Click Here)
- Mountain Goat - Today
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10
- Bison - Jan 15
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30

Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!

Value of a Point

If you have followed this blog for any length of time you have read about my philosophy of "point values." Each point that you accumulate has a value in that it increases your odds of drawing a tag by a certain percentage. That percentage varies depending upon the species, the unit, and even varies from year to year. In the table shown here, you can see that the peak of the mountain goat point value was back in 2012 for residents. Unfortunately, the value of a point for non-residents has decreased annually. For resident, you can expect each bonus point that you have to increase your odds by about 0.123%. That means that with 0 points your average odds are 0.123%, with 1 point your average odds are 0.246%... basically take the number of bonus points you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.123. So if I have 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.123 = 1.23%.
For non-residents the value of a point is significantly less at 0.010% per bonus point. Follow the same formula to determine your average odds for non-residents take the number of bonus you have and add 1, then multiply by 0.010... so if I had 9 points my average odds would be (9+1)*0.010 = 0.100%.

Unfortunately, the mountain goat population is highly fluctuating right now and many of the core populations are being used to establish populations elsewhere in the state and therefore opportunity and the number of tags offered from year to year can fluctuate. Both resident and non-residents face astronomical odds at drawing a mountain goat tag in Utah, but unlike bull moose and the two bighorn species there may be some hope that one of these tags could be drawn in a lifetime.

One item to pay particular attention to in the mountain goat application (and all OIAL applicants) is the number of tags offered. If there has historically only been one tag offered then it is highly likely that only one tag will be offered again this year. When only one tag is offered that tag is through random lottery drawing. If you would like to take full advantage of your bonus points you should really look for units that offer two or more tags.

A second item to pay attention to in relation to the mountain goat application is that there may be a handful of nanny only options where the highest point holders have much lower point totals. These opportunities are generally tied to the larger goat populations that can be used in re-population or population establishment, so the number of tags can be high one year and very low the next so there is some risk in selecting the nanny only options.

Recently there have also been archery only options. I don't have a whole lot of information on these hunts since they have been around for only a short amount of time, but the bonus tags do appear to draw at a lower level than any weapon tags.

Applicant Pool Evaluation

Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for mountain goat using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The red bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point corresponding to the y-axis on the left. The green line indicates from the applicants who applied for a hunt unit the number of random numbers issued corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.

In the 2019 application there were almost 1000 new applicants for mountain goat, that number still pales in comparison to the 2500 new moose applicants! The applicant pool for mountain goat appears to be growing steadily, there appears to be a spike in applicants in the 2 point pool but last year and this year the growth in applicants in the 1 and 0 point pools appears to be right in line with trends. The same goes for the number of applicants who just bought the point, the growth appears to match the trend. The 12 point group appears to be the peak in regards to the largest amount of random numbers issued... remember that for moose the peak for random numbers was 17 so the applicant pool for mountain goat is significantly smaller and is far less top heavy in regards to the number of applicants with very high numbers of points.

For the non-resident pool, growth appears to mimic the resident pool, with the exception of the 10 point pool from when the State began allowing non-resident applicants to apply for all once-in--lifetime species. If you happen to find yourself above that huge bolus of applicants beginning in the 10 point pool you actually find yourself in a decent spot... if you are behind that 10 point spike and the larger number of applicants in the point pools below 10 I would say you are fighting what would ultimately be a losing battle.

Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.

Of note to me in both of these images is that the top point holders have a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit. Once-in-a-lifetime applications are an interesting thing... the draw odds are often so long that applicants end up applying anyways. For residents, the percentage of point buyers hovers between 25 and 30 percent for most of the applicant pool. When a majority of the highest point holders end up just purchasing a bonus point instead of actually applying for a hunt it makes it very difficult to feel like one could ever catch up to the point creep in the moose pool.
For non-residents the percentage of point buyers appears to be between 30% and 50% pretty much throughout the applicant pool. If I were a non-resident, knowing how minuscule my chances of drawing are, there is no way I would let a year slip by without actively applying for a permit. With only maybe 10 tags to be distributed and more than 7600 active applicants and nearly 5400 point buyers… I’d rather be with the active applicants and at least have a chance at a tag because by buying points annually. I just don’t see how you’re “gaining on it” by buying points year after year so if it were me I'd select a unit and apply rather than buy points... I'll get the point anyway when I get an unsuccessful email.

Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:

Tag Distribution

Here is a look at how the tags were distributed in 2019...
The blue line shows the number of applicants and corresponds to the first Y-axis on the left. The orange bars are the regular tags drawn and the gray bars are the bonus tags issued to the highest point holders and correspond to the second second Y-axis on the right.

Dec 26, 2019

Drawing Analysis: Once-in-a-Lifetime Moose

In preparation for the Utah Big Game application period opening Jan 30th this year I will be releasing a species by species analysis of drawing odds. I will start with moose and will proceed with the once-in-a-lifetime species and finish up with the limited entry species. Here is the schedule I will follow:
- Moose - Today
- Mountain Goat - Dec 31
- Desert Bighorn - Jan 5
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn - Jan 10
- Bison - Jan 15
- Pronghorn - Jan 20
- Deer - Jan 25
- Elk - Jan 30

Subscribe below to stay up to date on each of these analyses and please enjoy as you research for your 2020 Utah Big Game application!

Value of a Point

My grandfather's 2004 Bull Moose

Unfortunately, the Utah moose herd has been battling a number of challenges resulting in declining herd numbers. There appears to be a slight glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel though, moose numbers appear to have stabilized a bit and the Moose Management Plan currently allows biologists to take an aggressive approach to their management. After years of not offering antlerless moose permits, there have been a small handful of antlerless tags offered over the last couple years and that is viewed as a positive. Both resident and non-residents face astronomical odds at drawing a moose tag in Utah, like the other once-in-a-lifetime (OIAL) species one should not expect to draw a moose tag with just a few points. Inevitably there will always be the extremely lucky applicants with just a small handful of points, and those lucky few are often met with a mixture of congratulations and hostility from those who have applied for years and years. My grandfather finally drew a moose tag in 2004 with max points at the time after applying annually for more than 30 years.

One item to pay particular attention to in the moose application (and all OIAL applicants) is the number of tags offered. If there has historically only been one tag offered then it is highly likely that only one tag will be offered again this year. When only one tag is offered that tag is through random lottery drawing. This is especially of concern for resident applicants applying for CWMU hunts, the majority of these hunts only offer a single tag so the drawing is a random lottery. If you would like to take full advantage of your bonus points you should really look for units that offer two or more tags. Many applicants are beginning to view these CWMU options as viable alternate choices to the standard public land hunts where drawing a tag may be a lot sooner coming. Again, be aware that most CWMU units only offer a single bull moose permit so no bonus permits are issued and the drawing is performed as a weighted lottery. It is conceivable that an applicant could apply for his or her lifetime and never draw the permit regardless of the number of bonus points that he or she has.
Notice that each of the units in the second table are CWMU units. The drawing odds for these CWMU hunts have all decreased dramatically over the last couple years as many applicants within the moose applicant pool have grown tired of the long waits and the constantly decreasing tag numbers.
For non-residents, there is one unit that offers more than one tag and therefore issued a single guaranteed bonus point tag... Wasatch Mountains. The other units to offer a non-resident moose permits were Ogden, North Slope, Summit and Cache.

Applicant Pool Evaluation

Let’s get a feel for the overall applicant pool for moose using the two images below. The first image is shows the resident data, and the second image shows the non-resident data. The red bars are the number of applicants who submitted an application for a specific hunt unit while the blue bars show the number of applicants who submitted an application to purchase the bonus point corresponding to the y-axis on the left. The green line indicates from the applicants who applied for a hunt unit the number of random numbers issued corresponding to the second Y-axis on the right.

For the Utah resident applicant pool I am noticing a couple things. First, looking at the graph for the actual applicants, I can see that there has been a higher number of applicants in each of the past 3 years than the trend would seem to indicate... especially last year. In the 2019 application there were almost 2500 new applicants for moose! The number of applicants who just bought a point doesn't show nearly as dramatic an increase, but it does appear to be greater than what a trend would indicate. The 17 point group appears to be the peak in regards to the largest amount of random numbers issued.

For the non-resident pool, the number of applicants has dramatically increased just like the resident pool, and you can see the spike in the 10 point pool from when the State began allowing non-resident applicants to apply for all once-in--lifetime species.

Very quickly here, let's have a quick look at the percentage of applicants that apply for a hunt unit versus the percentage that purchase the point.

Of note to me in both of these images is that the top point holders have a higher tendency to purchase a preference point rather than apply for a hunt unit. Once-in-a-lifetime applications are an interesting thing… the draw odds are often so long that applicants end up applying anyways. For residents, the percentage of point buyers hovers between 25 and 35 percent for most of the applicant pool. When about 60% of the 24 and 100% of the 25 point holders end up just purchasing a bonus point instead of actually applying for a hunt it makes it very difficult to feel like one could ever catch up to the point creep in the moose pool.
For non-residents the percentage of point buyers appears to be between 30% and 40% pretty much throughout the applicant pool. If I were a non-resident, knowing how minuscule my chances of drawing are, there is no way I would let a year slip by without actively applying for a permit. With only single digit tags to be distributed and more than 8100 active applicants and nearly 6800 point buyers… I’d rather be with the active applicants and at least have a chance at a tag because by buying points annually. I just don’t see how you’re “gaining on it” by buying points year after year so if it were me I'd select a unit and apply rather than buy points... I'll get the point anyway when I get an unsuccessful email.

Here is a look at the average number of bonus points over the last 5 years that it took to draw a Bonus Tag. I’ve included the PROJECTED 2020 average bonus points:

Tag Distribution

Pictures

Dec 17, 2019

2019 Idaho Elk Hunt Part 2

Story contributed by Doug.

First thing's first... if you missed Part 1 check it out here.

Just before it got light I could hear bugles just above my camp. I had no problem getting rest as I was completely exhausted from the previous days hike. I jumped out of my bag and put my boots on and headed up to where I could hear the relatively close bugles. The path that I had taken to descend to camp would be leading me back up the hill. As I looked down at the path, I noticed my own boot tracks were overlaid by the tracks of a big bull. This lovesick beast must have caught the scent of the cows that I had watched last night.

As I climbed up the ridgeline I reached a spine of rocks that had to be negotiated with a body length jump in order to progress to the top of the hill. As soon as I landed I glassed ahead and finally spotted the bull that was causing all of the commotion. He stood out compared to the other elk as his coat was bright yellow. He was also significantly larger than the other elk. My binoculars revealed that he was a 6x6 bull. He was very distracted raking a tree and the distance was so long that I did not even bother to lift the rangefinder from my pack.

Closing the distance came easy as the ridgeline was practically level with his elevation. I just had to sidehill until I could arrive within shooting range. As I proceeded in their direction I would watch the cows as they would go in and out of the pines. Eventually the bull was satisfied with the destroyed sapling that he was raking and began to trail the cows. The lead cow was coming in my direction. She was browsing out in an opening across the small canyon. I ranged her at 400 yards and felt comfortable making the shot if the bull were to appear in her location. I found a set of rocks that I could lay across. My rifle was not quite elevated high enough for a shot so I had to position my left hand below the stock and hold it in a fist in order to gain a slight amount of elevation.

My heart rate was finally beginning to slow. As I positioned my scope in the general direction of the elk, things were rock-solid. The entire herd had presented itself on the hillside with the bull as the exception. Suddenly it became obvious where he was as he let out a bugle and a medium size tree began to shake violently. I had the assurance that the bull was in proximity of the cows and he was extremely distracted raking a tree. After what felt like 10 minutes he finally emerged from the deep foliage with the shaking tree. I followed him with the crosshairs and he stopped to let out a bugle. The trigger to my rifle broke mid bugle and the bull lost all of his strength in his front end and did a shoulder dive into a pine tree. With his entire weight leaned up against a pine tree, I decided to send another round just incase he was not mortally wounded.

As the second round found its mark the bull began to roll. His body looked limp. As he began his descent I could hear crashing all over the place and the other elk were galloping out of the pines and down the ridge. As I made my way to collect my prize I made an amazing discovery. I could hear a trickle of water and I managed to find a small spring that came up out of the ground. The day prior I searched in vain down the same ravine only to come up empty handed. The small creek must go under ground as it descends lower in elevation.

The water ended up being critical in my pack out as this elk was so deep into the woods that I would have to plan my routes and trips very specifically around staying hydrated. I quickly marked the spring and made my climb up to my prize.

When I found my bull laying on the ground I was pleasantly surprised by how large he was. He was a beautiful 6x6 and I took a few minutes to soak in what had happened. I took me a couple of hours to get him skinned and quartered out into pillow cases. That evening I ended up packing a hindquarter back to my camp leaving the other 3/4's and the tenderloins and backstraps hanging in pillow cases in a tree down by the spring. I had an extra pair of socks in my pack so I took my used socks and places them at the base of the tree to deter any predators that would potentially consider consuming my hard earned elk meat.

I spent the next 3 days carefully planning trips back and forth between my minivan, my camp, and the killsite. The next morning I woke up in camp and packed my hindquarter down to the minivan. I ended up driving into to town to see if a good friend would be willing to take his horses and mules and give me a hand with my elk but I would later discover that my good friend had passed away from a heart attack just a few weeks prior to my hunt. I ended up sleeping in my minivan that night and woke up at first light with my pack frame planning to hike up to the kill site. The hike took me nearly half the day. upon arrival I strapped a hindquarter and a front quarter to my pack frame. Standing up was a task that would take several attempts with such an enormous amount of weight. I bypassed walking by camp and hiked straight to the minivan arriving just prior to nightfall. The next morning I woke up to collect the rest of the elk and also pack up my camp. As I was headed up to the kill sight I came across a sow and her cub. It was entertaining to watch them play and feed together.

Dec 10, 2019

2019 Idaho Elk Hunt Part 1

Story contributed by Doug.

This hunt story starts at home with my amazing wife supporting my ambitions and my attempts to become a better hunter. As I prepared to leave Sunday right after church I could not believe the words I heard, "Come home with your all time biggest bull." As I drove off and headed in the direction of my hunt unit I could not get over how lucky I was to embark on a week long attempt to harvest a bull elk.

On the drive in I could not help but notice all the wild game crossing the road back and forth in the dark. Glowing eye after glowing eye, elk after elk, the hunt was off to a good start. I pulled into a local grocery store parking lot and waited for the store to open so I could purchase enough blocks of ice to keep in my cooler just in case I were to kill an animal.

As soon as I loaded up the ice blocks, light began to peek over the mountain tops. My hunt had opened 8 days ago, I wondered about all of the pressure on the unit. As I pushed down the road I noticed a cow elk out in an opening. Her head swung to her right and gave away the location of the rest of the herd. I identified a dozen other cows and calves tended by a herd bull. It was fantastic to observe the herd bull bugling and chasing the cows. Unfortunately, this rutting action occurred outside of my hunt area so I was merely an observer here. Historically this happens every year as I am driving to the hunt area and is a very familiar scene.

I pulled into my spot and prepared my backpack for a 3 night hunt. I packed exceptionally light by my standards and utilized a Badlands 2200 as a overnight pack with the ability to pack out elk quarters. The familiar hike begins at 2,936 ft in elevation and the hunting usually doesn't tend to get good until you get to 6,000 ft.

I had driven past this drainage for several years but last year was the first time that I actually ascended it. There are several locations where body length vertical rock climbs are necessary along the trail. About 2.5 miles in I found an old elk bed that provided barely enough room for my 1 man tent. It was too tempting to pass up as base camp so I set up my tent, dropped off all of my supplies, and began to search for water.

Finding water was going to be a trick. I would have to descend a thousand feet just to get down to a creek bottom, and I wasn't even sure that it held water. If I was unable to find water, I would have just enough water to last me until morning and my only option would be to head back to the vehicle to replenish my supply. Luckily, the creek bottom had a very light trickle and I was able to obtain 96 ounces of fresh water.

With water in my pack I decided to climb up a ridge that would enable me to hunt a ridge that sat between me and my camp. The ascent up the ridge was laborious, I huffed and puffed and perspired all the way to the top. As I approached the top I looked over on the ridge that would lead down to my camp and spotted brown bodies feeding along the ridge! As if my pulse was not racing fast enough, I immediately confirmed with my optics that it was elk! My mind began to race, was I going to get an elk tonight? Is it go time?

I had to remind myself to keep calm, these elk were still a long ways away. After I gained enough composure, I opened up the side pocket to my pack and pulled out my range finder. I dialed it in on the biggest brown body and the report was 515 yards. After making a conscious effort to put the rangefinder away and carefully zip the pocket closed (I didn't want to lose my 3rd rangefinder from over-excitement), I began to close the distance.

I continued up the ridgeline headed towards where the ridges would eventually intersect. I would walk a few yards and lift up my glass to see if a bull could be identified. As I reached the saddle where I would cross over to the ridge where the elk were grazing I caught movement just below the elk. About a hundred yards below the elk a belly dragging, pumpkin headed, jet black bear presented itself! This bear was big! With the bear in such close proximity to the elk I was able to gauge the size of his body in comparison to the lead cow and he was definitely a shooter! At this point I had so much sitting on the table and the stimulation had me in overdrive. I was still waiting for a bull to pop out behind those cows, but I have a thug of a black bear below the herd of elk. I range the black bear at 365 yards and the old adage of "a bird in the hand" came to mind. Last year I harvested the largest bear to come out of the unit in many years according to the Fish and Game during the check. I decided get a good steady rest with the rifle, and the bear was in my crosshairs several times but there was too much bouncing for me to feel comfortable with the shot.

he bear starts climbing uphill towards the elk. Simultaneously the elk start in the direction of the bear. I am wondering what is going to happen as they collide. The bear is starting up the same path that the elk are headed down. He approaches the lead cow within a few feet and they lock eyes. Then as if nothing ever happened the bear continued to feed up the hill as the cows continued to feed down the hill. Relative in size the bear seemed to be just as big of a target as the lead cow and I want him dead now more than ever. For some reason he hustles over the projected saddle as I follow him with my scope. My crosshairs were never firmly seated on him with the steadiness sufficient to break my trigger and he disappeared over the saddle never to be seen again. Instantly I was filled with regret, so many "what ifs" went through my head.

As light began to fade and I was disgusted at losing a bear that could potentially have been bigger than the bear that I had gotten last year. As a consolation I watched the elk feed across the hillside. I tried as hard to pick out a bull. I counted over and over again from 1 to 9 until the light was gone and hiked back to camp in the dark.

As I hiked back to camp I began to dwindle in negativity. I could have been that guy that had 2 giant bear rugs, one that was dark brown and one that was jet black! I wondered if the two bruins were related or if the scars on the face of the bear that I harvested last year were from his jet black opponent. I failed to capitalize on an amazing opportunity and I started to come down on myself for being greedy. I was distraught with the knowledge that such an opportunity comes very rarely. I was both physically and emotionally exhausted. As soon as I reached basecamp I barely had energy to make a quick meal and fall into bed. In my mind I was tired enough to wake up tomorrow and pack up and call it a hunt.

As I laid in my sleeping bag I envisioned that bear and replayed his escape. I silently wished for him to come snooping around my camp that night and I began to drift off
as I imagined the bear lurking about my camp. As I began to drifted off to sleep I remember thought if I couldn't find him in the morning maybe I would just pack up and leave this place.

I am not sure how long I had been asleep, but I was woken in the middle of the night by branches breaking outside my tent. Just as I was about to reach out of my sleeping bag for my rifle to defend myself a bugle ripped in the night sky loud and close! This bull had to be within 30 yards of camp! I fell back to sleep to the love struck chuckles and chirping in the night.

Dec 3, 2019

Wild Game Pastrami

Here is my first attempt at making wild game pastrami... and it will not be the last!!! This recipe is a definite winner, my wife and all of my kids ranging from 12 to 4 years old have endorsed this one with two thumbs way up!!! Aside from having to wait a week or so, the space that the roasts took up in the fridge, and taking 30 seconds every day to flip the roasts over... pastrami is an easy and delicious way to prepare a couple of wild game roasts.

I started with the Cabela's Venison Pastrami recipe. From the freezer I pulled one elk roast (eye of round), one deer roast (bottom round), and one pronghorn roast (bottom round) and brought together all the ingredients for the cure. I toasted the spices in a cast iron skillet before mixing with the Morton's TenderQuick.

Then I coated each roast equally with the cure and placed them in vacuum sealed bags. The bags went into the fridge and I rotated the bags every day for 7 or 8 days. Each day when I rotated the roasts I snapped a quick picture of them for a type of "day by day" look at them. Initially they started out dry in the bag but over time the cure began to pull moisture from the roasts. By about Day 4 or 5 I could really tell the Tender Quick was doing it's job because I could feel that the texture of the roasts had changed as I manipulated the bags.

At the end of Day 7, I opened the bags and rinsed each roast with tap water then soaked the roasts in water overnight in the fridge. I mixed the rub as directed by the recipe and coated each roast with a generous layer of the rub.

I set up the smoker in the snowstorm on the morning of Thanksgiving and smoked the roasts to an internal temperature of 150 degrees. Removed from the heat I wrapped the pastrami in foil and allowed it to rest for a couple hours before slicing. Quite frankly, after giving a couple slices to my wife and the kids... I'm extremely lucky that I had enough to make an amazing little slider.