My 2016 Utah Application Guide for LE Species

On the eve of the opening of the bucks, bulls, and once-in-a-lifetime application period I’d like to share some of my thoughts concerning this application cycle. There have been a number of changes made over the winter that will have a potentially dramatic trickledown effect on a number of the hunts that need to be considered by many applicants. Additionally, I’d like to provide a guide for applicants looking to gain a better understanding of what to expect from this year’s application cycle.
Let’s start with the changes… there are a handful. Some will have a much greater impact than others for sure. If you open up the 2016 Big Game Application Booklet you’ll notice on the first couple pages that there is an extensive list of items listed under the “What’s New?” heading. I’ll not go into each of these items… only the ones that I think could have an immediate impact on the application trends that I have tracked since 2006.
Over the last few years there have been a number of additional hunt opportunities for limited entry deer. These opportunities are for muzzleloader hunters with dates that coincide with the general muzzleloader elk hunts. I think this is a great opportunity to spread some point holders around, but ultimately I don’t think that it does much to affect the top point holders at all. Last year was the first year of this new hunt opportunity in a select handful of units so I don’t have any data currently to make any speculation on trends. Suffice it to say, in my opinion, if the DWR really wants to make this a viable option and really potentially affect those top point holders… they need to extend the hunt so that it corresponds more with the mule deer rut. As it currently stands the hunt is in the pre-rut with this year’s dates being the latest they could be (you’ll hear a lot about this year’s hunt dates as we work through the breakdown of the different species) but it still seems to end a bit early to really get much into the rut. If the DWR were to move this only slightly, pushing it back by a week or two, I think you would really see some significant interest from guys/gals that have higher numbers of bonus points.
There will be a few new hunts on limited entry elk units this fall that will share the same hunt dates as the general rifle spike hunts. These hunts will be available on the following units: Box Elder, Grouse Creek; Paunsaugunt; Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lakes; West Desert, Deep Creek. There was considerable talk in the Wildlife Board Meeting when this was approved to include the Central Mountains, Manti and possibly even Wasatch Mountains units in this program but it was determined to pilot the program this year in these four units to determine its viability. Although this new hunt provides what I would consider a unique opportunity to bring back a large “family camp” with a limited entry tag holder hunting with family members who are also hunting spikes, I don’t see this hunt really affecting the top pointholders in the application and dramatically affecting the drawing odds for the more popular early rifle hunts on those units. I would anticipate the biggest draw for these hunts probably coming from the late rifle hunts with the archery, early rifle, and muzzleloader draws largely remaining unchanged.
A couple of hunts will be discontinued this year. The two that could pose the most impactful are the closure of the Beaver nanny mountain goat hunt and the closure youth late any bull hunt. Those applicants hoping to shorten their wait for a once-in-a-lifetime (OIAL) mountain goat tag by applying for the nanny tag will now only have one option, Ogden. This could have some pretty serious impact on the drawing odds for the Ogden nanny hunt. For the youth late any bull tag, it’s just unfortunate to see an opportunity for young hunters go by the wayside. But I understand that much of the area that this hunt was held in was private property, and there is still the early youth any bull which is still a unique OIAL experience for young hunters.
And finally, the regulation limiting muzzleloader hunters to a fixed power, non-magnifying aiming system has been lifted. Hunters are now free to use the scope of their choice on their muzzleloader regardless of magnification. I don’t see this change affecting the limited entry (LE) deer and pronghorn draws too much. The deer application trends show that archery, rifle, and muzzleloader bonus points pools are so close together that there would really be no incentive to switch from rifle to muzzleloader. The elk drawing on the other hand is where this change could absolutely be a game changer. As it currently stands it takes an average of four fewer bonus points to draw a LE muzzleloader elk tag compared to the same LE early rifle tag, and with the LE elk dates still providing hunters the chance to chase rut crazed bulls, this could be a huge incentive to make that switch. Additionally, electronic rangefinding devices attached to bows are also now legal. I don’t see this affecting any of the other (rifle, muzzleloader) draws and causing a real deviation from the trends for the archery applicant pool, though.
Some interesting changes to be certain and I will be interested to see how these changes affect this year’s application pool and compare them to the historical trends.
For those of you looking for any little tidbit of information, or possibly tips, to increase your chances at drawing a tag this year… let’s take a species by species look at this and break it down. I will not discuss the CWMU units at this time.
LE DEER
I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe that the trends will change for this year. This is how many bonus points I think it will take to draw each deer tag:

	RESIDENT				NON-RESIDENT
Unit	Archery	Any Weapon	Muzzleloader	Multi-Season	Archery	Any Weapon	Muzzleloader	Multi-Season
Antelope Island		NA
Henry Mountains	17.4	19.3	19.0	20.0	NA	21.6	NA
Paunsaugunt	12.7	14.8	12.8	16.0	20.1	20.1	18.2
Book Cliffs	8.7		9.6	11.0	12.9		12.8	NA
Book Cliffs, North		10.7				13.9
Book Cliffs, South		10.7				15.0
Fillmore, Oak Creek	6.8	14.6	11.7	NA	NA	21.6	NA
La Sal, Dolores Triangle	8.6	13.3	13.7			NA
San Juan, Elk Ridge	14.1	13.3	13.9	13.0	NA	18.5	NA
South Slope, Diamond Mountain	10.0	11.7	10.1	12.0	9.4	13.6	12.8
West Desert, Vernon	7.5	12.8	10.1	13.0	8.5	12.8	11.2	NA
North Slope, Summit		0				0	NA
Cache, Crawford Mountain			12.7				14.9
Chalk Creek/East Canyon/Morgan-South Rich			9.0				NA
Kamas			6.0				NA
Nine Mile			6.0				NA
Pine Valley			11.0				NA
Southwest Desert			14.0				NA
Zion			9.0				NA

“NA” means that there has historically only been one tag offered so the tag is issued through a lottery style drawing. “Blank” means that there have historically not been tags offered for this unit.
I expect a little bit of fluctuation with the muzzleloader only units (Chalk Creek, Kamas, Nine Mile, Pine Valley, Southwest Desert, and Zion) simply because I only have one year of data to reference. I also expect some fluctuation with the Multi-Season hunts as well since last year (2015) was the first time these hunts were offered. In the coming years I expect the trends to become more clear for these hunts as more data points are obtained.
LE ELK
The permission now of magnifying scopes on muzzleloaders I think will have the greatest impact with the LE elk drawing. I can only speculate, but I would anticipate an increase in applicants for the muzzleloader tags. One thing that may even out the applicants somewhat are the season dates… these season dates are the latest dates that are possible under Utah’s hunt date system. This year I would expect to see a spike in archery applications as this year the archery dates are the “best” they could be for hunting during the first part of the rut. Applicants for the early rifle tag should remain relatively constant… not much changes with these rifle hunts because of their popularity. The muzzleloader hunts may see a slight drop off because of how late the season starts (September 28 compared to last year’s opening date of September 23), however this potential slight drop off could be completely wiped out by the magnifying scope change! The late rifle hunt is where I think most guys/gals will jump from to potentially hunt the new October hunts during the general spike hunts. This is how many points I think it will take to draw each elk tag:

	RESIDENT					NON-RESIDENT
Unit	Archery	Early Any Weapon	Late Any Weapon	Muzzle loader	Multi-Season	Archery	Early Any Weapon	Late Any Weapon	Muzzle loader	Multi-Season
Beaver, East	11.8	20..3	15.0	18.1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek South	5.9	17.7	10.3	13.2	19.1	13.7	18.2	14.3	15.7
Book Cliffs, Little Creek Roadless	6.3	17.3		13.5	NA	NA	20.0	NA	NA
Box Elder, Grouse Creek		14.5		8.7			NA
Box Elder, Pilot Mountain		18.4
Cache, Meadowville	0.7	4.3	2.1	0.7	23.0	NA	10.3	3.0	NA
Cache, North	0.4	8.7	6.5	4.0	NA	NA	10.2	NA	NA
Cache, South	3.6	13.5	9.7	9.4	17.6	6.3	13.5	9.0	12.5
Central Mountains, Manti	4.5	14.5	8.8	10.7	18.7	10.7	15.0	11.1	13.6	NA
Central Mountains, Nebo	3.2	12.1	11.3	5.2	16.1	9.3	NA	NA	NA
Fillmore, Pahvant	13.3	21.8	15.8	18.3	22.5	NA	NA	13.2	20.0
La Sal, Dolores Triangle			15.1
La Sal, La Sal Mountains	3.5	13.4	7.2	9.2	18.0	12.9	16.9	13.2	18.0
Monroe	13.6	20.9	17.1	18.1	NA	NA	NA	NA
Mt. Dutton	3.6	14.9	12.1	11.7	19.3	14.4	17.5	15.1	13.0
Nine Mile, Anthro	2.8	14.7	11..5	12.1	NA		NA	NA
North Slope, Three Corners	6.5	15.1		6.5	NA	NA	14.8		NA
Oquirrh-Stansbury	4.1	13.4	10.3	9.4	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Panguitch Lake	6.7	16.1	11.4	12.2	20.4	12.4	20.2	13.3	NA
Paunsaugunt	2.3	10.9	7.0	4.5	13.1	8.8	14.4	11.0	NA
Plateau, Boulder/Kaiparowitz	11.6	18.3	14.0	16.5	21.9	16.0	19.8	17.8	NA
Plateau, Fishlake/Thousand Lake	3.7	13.4	10.4	9.1	17.3	10.2	16.6	13.7	13.8	NA
San Juan	16.3	21.6	15.0	19.9	22.6	NA	22.4	NA	NA
South Slope, Diamond Mountain	4.5	11.5	11.2	8.0	NA	NA	15.1	NA	NA
Southwest Desert	7.7	18.9	12.1	14.4	20.2	13.5	20.2	16.6	17.9
Wasatch Mountains	4.3	14.4	11.7	8.4	18.9	8.6	13.8	11.3	11.2	15.2
West Desert, Deep Creek	2.5	13.4	10.7	8.7	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Again, “NA” means that there has historically only been one tag offered so the tag is issued through a lottery style drawing and “blank” means that there have historically not been tags offered for this unit.
I do expect to see some change to the trend in the muzzleloader applications this year, but the extent of the change is unknown. This will be the most interesting thing to see when the results for this application cycle are released.
LE PRONGHORN
Much like with the LE deer drawing, I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe there will be any changes in the trends that I have observed. This is how many points I anticipate it will take to draw a pronghorn tag:

	RESIDENT			NON-RESIDENT
Unit	Archery	Any Weapon	Muzzleloader	Archery	Any Weapon	Muzzleloader
Beaver	2.0	4.7			NA
Book Cliffs, Bitter Creek	2.6	7.1			NA
Book Cliffs, South (Cisco)	2.6	5.1		NA	10.8
Box Elder, Pilot Mountain	NA	8.3			NA
Box Elder, Promontory	0.3	3.9			NA
Box Elder, Puddle Valley	6.8	6.8			NA
Box Elder, Snowville	2.0	5.9			NA
Cache/Morgan – South Rich/Ogden	0.8	5.6	3.0	7.0	5.3	6.0
Fillmore, Black Rock Desert	4.9	6.3			NA
Kaiparowitz		NA
La Sal, Potash/South Cisco	NA
La Sal, South Cisco		4.7			8.1
Mt Dutton/Paunsaugunt
Mt. Dutton/Paunsaugunt, John’s Valley	3.2			NA
Nine Mile, Anthro	2.7	5.7			7.9
Nine Mile, Range Creek		8.6			NA
North Slope, Summit		8.0
North Slope, West Daggett – Three Corners	3.6	6.1		NA	6.8
Panguitch Lake		5.8			NA
Pine Valley	3.1	5.0		NA	6.6
Plateau	1.1	4.2	0.9	2.7	6.0	7.7
San Juan, Hatch Point		7.8
San Rafael, Desert		9.3			NA
San Rafael, North	4.2	9.3		NA	16.8
South Slope, Bonanza-Diamond Mountain	4.0	8.6			6.1
South Slope, Vernal	3.0	6.8			NA
Southwest Desert	2.4	5.1	1.0	6.9	10.9	9.0
West Desert, Riverbed	6.8	11.6		NA	NA
West Desert, Rush Valley	5.9	10.6			NA
West Desert, Snake Valley	4.6	10.1			13.5

The muzzleloader pronghorn hunt has only been around for a couple years and it looks to me like it still hasn’t quite caught on yet. That makes the muzzleloader options great “easy” draws if a guy/gal would be interested in chasing pronghorn with a muzzleloader… and with the scope magnification restrictions now lifted I’m hopeful that these hunts become more popular and the DWR opens muzzleloader seasons in other units.
Check out the species specific analysis pages for more information on the LE deer, elk, and pronghorn draws. Also check out those same pages for more information on OIAL species.

2015 Antlerless Elk... "Our" Elk

Over the last several weeks I have been waging one of those internal struggles that would impact how I go about my business hunting and fishing going forward. I had been putting off taking my kids because of how young they are and because my hunting and fishing style is, for lack of better words, just a lot of work. I guess you could say that one of my New Year's “resolutions” was/is to include my children in some of theses activities.
I had a cow elk tag that ran through the end of the year for 2015 and had been unable to make much time to try and fill this tag, so a couple friends and I decided to take the last two days of the year off and dedicate that time to chasing some cow elk. The night before (so the 29th) as the kids were getting ready to go to bed I asked my wife if I should take my oldest son with me. As soon as my wife said that would be fine, I got nervous... the forecast was for exceptionally cold temperatures and I began to get uneasy that I would be able to keep him warm enough to be able to out there for very long. When I asked him if he wanted to go he just lit up and I told him to gather his snow gear as if we were going snowmobiling.
The next morning (the 30th) I poked my head into Logan's bedroom at 5am to wake him up and he popped up out of bed. We got dressed in the kitchen where I had laid out his clothes and made sure that he matched how I dressed layer for layer. We jumped in the car and headed for the canyon. As we pulled into the parking area of the WMA there was a large herd of elk just off the side of the road. These elk were safely within the fences of private property. As we entered parking lot to the WMA we found a dozen or more trucks already there with small orange dots peppering the hillside and canyon in front of us. I'm conditioned to hunt private property where pressure is light, and in many instances my hunting party may be the only one on the mountain for days, so this was going to be very different for me... let the rodeo begin.
We chatted briefly with a gentleman that was waiting in his truck for a friend. He was extremely anxious because his friend has access to the private area adjacent to the WMA where the large roadside elk herd was located. I asked if there was any way for others to gain access or permission from the landowner but was told that only 4 individuals were granted access to the ranchers property. After hearing that I immediately considered the possibility that this rancher who is not allowing hunters to push elk off his property would soon be crying for assistance from the DWR to pay for damage to his property and feed by these elk... a frustrating train of thought. The roadside herd of elk began working it's way out of the bottoms into a large bowl that is also part of the ranchers property.
He began to use some colorful language in front of my 8 year old son, so I ended the conversation and began hiking. We worked our way up the bottom of the canyon for about a mile. We spotted a good number of deer but no elk. We had heard a handful of shots early while talking to the gentleman in the parking area, but we were not seeing much in terms of elk.
We picked out a small knoll that we figured would give us a good vantage point and made our way to the top. At the top we spotted two cow elk bedded in in a open area about a mile away.


As we looked over these two cows, we also spotted two orange dots between us and the elk. We thought for sure they had seen the elk and were working their way over to them. As we watched these two hunters for several minutes it became apparent that they could not and had not seen the elk. A plan was hatched for a couple of us to skirt below the two hunters who had hunkered down under a couple pines and close the distance on the two bedded cows. I asked Logan if he wanted to come with me or if he wanted to stay on the knoll with a couple of the other guys. He was coming with me, so off we went blazing our own trail through thick brush and thigh deep snow... waist deep for him. He was with me stride for stride and we covered ground faster than I had thought we would. Doug had reached the landmark before I did and had a couple minutes to get settled into position and keep and eye on the elk.

Logan decided to stay by the tree while Doug and I moved 30 or 40 yards to get a clearer shot.
My elk was to be the one on the left, so with a clear shot on the bedded cow I took aim and fired. The bedded cow stood, so a second shot was taken. At the second shot she lurched and took off on a mad dash down into some of the thickest and nastiest stuff I have ever seen. We found the blood trail and we followed it for a short time until we found her laying down in an even thicker thicket. We negotiated thick brush, steep slopes, and waist and thigh deep snow... and the whole time Logan was right there pointing out drops of blood that had frozen on twigs and branches. A final shot was administered to ensure the chase ended there shortly after noon. My goodness, she went through some of the most awful brush that I have ever seen and had there not been a blanket of white snow on the ground making a blood trail clear I would guarantee that we would have probably never found her.

Doug took a couple pictures with Logan and I. I've taken some amazing pictures hunting and fishing over the years... but these are my favorites.

Logan is a very methodical and observant little guy and had a litany of questions as I began to skin and quarter the cow (which we actually determined to be a female calf, her ivories had just barely erupted). He watched as I began to peel the hide back to reveal the muscle and observed that muscles continued to twitch and everything appeared to be “wrapped in plastic already.” He made sure that I took all of the meat that he could see. I skinned and quartered solo since Doug had left Logan and I once we had found this elk to go and track the other one. I wanted no part of coming back into that area for a second trip so I loaded up my pack with all the meat it would hold, then made up a second sack that I would carry in my arms. We would go about 50 yards and I'd need a rest. Bless his heart, Logan was right there in my footsteps.
It was about a half mile to where we would meet up with the guys that we had left (they had worked their way one knoll closer to where the elk had been), and when we finally reached them I was absolutely gassed, and Logan was talking a blue streak. His energy and excitement really kept me going. Josh offered to take the bag that I was carrying in my arms, which really helped. We were able to get back to the main trail which really helped, because plowing through deep powder with an extra 70ish pounds on your back is pretty rough. We made it back to the parking area and loaded the meat in the cooler at about 4pm.
The heater in the car was turned on and layer after layer of clothes were shed, toes and fingers were warmed up, and picture texts were sent to mom and just about every family member I had a phone number for showing our trophy saying we would be home soon.
My Fitbit read 8.25 miles, more than half of that was plowing through fresh powder... and throughout the day I did not hear one word of complaint from Logan. I am not only prouder than heck of him but I'm truly impressed with him... he's one tough little dude.
With the meat home I took the next couple days to butcher everything and get it into our freezer. I laid out the steaks and roasts. My other boys ran over to the table and screamed “STEAK!!!” much like a Civil War General would have yelled “CHARGE!!!” to his troops. I got my wife's attention with the 17 pounds of ground that I later laid out on the table. For many years now I have put meat in the freezer and it's always been “dad's elk” or “dad's deer”... this one is different, it's “our elk” and I hope that he takes as much satisfaction and pride in putting it on the table as I do.