Point Creep?

As we begin 2018 the great majority of us find ourselves firmly entrenched in the preparation and research portion of our hunting calendar. In the next few weeks as many of the western states publish their annual regulations and open their application periods there is one cryptic phrase that will generate page after page of message board fodder… the phenomenon of “point creep.”
For several years now on a handful of western hunting forums “point creep” has been a hot, but often misunderstood topic of discussion. Point creep is a result of an overwhelming demand for a limited resource, there just simply aren’t enough tags offered to keep pace with the increasing number of applicants. Obviously this results in a logjam of many applicants vying for few tags. This demonstrates by a unit that issued guaranteed bonus tags at… say… 10 points two years ago, issuing guaranteed bonus tags at 11 points last year. Let’s take a look at a couple specific examples, I tend to pick on the Central Mountains, Manti early any weapon hunt in this blog so let’s continue to do so here but let’s also take a look at a couple other early any weapon units and look at the number of bonus points it has taken over time to draw one of the guaranteed bonus tags.

Unit	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Cache, North	11	11	11	10	10	10	9	10	9	9	11	11
Central Mountains, Manti	12	12	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	15	15
San Juan	13	14	15	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	21	22

In these three examples we can see the three most common scenarios…
The Cache, North unit appears to require a relatively stable number of bonus points to draw one of the bonus tags oscillating between 9 and 11 bonus points. One could interpret this as reaching some sort of equilibrium between supply and demand… one could also interpret this as applicants are generally unwilling to “spend” more than 9 to 11 bonus points on this tag equating some kind of overall value to the tag. Take caution though if you think that this unit will stay between 9 and 11 bonus points annually… eventually it too will climb.
The Central Mountains, Manti unit shows a steady but relatively slow increase in the number of bonus points it takes to draw a guaranteed bonus tag. This increase is what many refer to as ‘point creep.” Many units that offer a high number of tags and are managed under the management plan for opportunity tend to have a similar point creep.
The San Juan unit is an extreme example of a unit managed for trophy quality, there are few tags offered to many applicants which results in a point creep that increases at a rapid pace. For many of the highest demand units it is common to see the point creep equal nearly a full point each year.
Now, careful study of draw results from previous years can, and should, give you an indication of the degree or severity of point creep for the unit that you are applying for and from there should help provide insight into your own predictions of when the tag could be drawn. Let’s take the next couple posts to examine some of the variables that contribute to point creep… some are obvious, some may not be so obvious.

NEXT: Point Creep Variable #1 - Tag Allocation